In past seasons, this wouldn’t even be a question. Le’Veon Bell has proved over his three years in the NFL that he is the best all-around back in the NFL. Those guys are usually the top fantasy running back too, and excluding a couple of exceptions over the years, running backs have almost always gone No. 1 overall in fantasy drafts.
So does that make Bell the clear-cut No. 1 choice for fantasy owners with the top selection in re-draft leagues this fall?
In 35 career games, Bell has averaged 113 yards from scrimmage per game, including 79.3 rushing yards. He also has scored 22 total touchdowns. That means he’s averaged 15.7 fantasy points per week in standard leagues.
For PPR formats, Bell is even more of a slam dunk. He’s made 152 receptions in just his 35 games. During his All-Pro 2014 season, he finished second among running backs with 83 catches and had over 850 receiving yards. Bell’s averaged an incredible 20.02 fantasy points per week in PPR formats. That basically puts him in elite fantasy quarterback territory for a three-year period.
But there are several concerns with taking Bell No. 1 overall.
First, he’s been great on the field, but he hasn’t stay on it as much as owners would like. Bell hasn’t finished either of the last two seasons because of knee injuries, both of which came against the Cincinnati Bengals. The first one in 2014, came during Week 17, and although it didn’t affect regular season fantasy leagues, it’s still worth calling attention to it. Then last year, Bell tore his ACL in Week 8.
Without question, Bell has the talent to be the No. 1 choice, but he does come with his risk. Receivers such as Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr., who have missed just one regular season game combined since October of 2014, are much safer selections.
Speaking of wide receivers, the NFL has changed so much into a passing league that the elite receivers are challenging the top running backs in terms of fantasy points. Brown averaged 15.4 and 23.9 fantasy points in standard and PPR leagues last season, respectively. Beckham earned 14.9 and 21.3 fantasy points per game in standard and PPR formats, respectively.
This is happening across the board, as Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins posted fantasy totals that rivaled running backs last year as well. Their position is naturally less injury prone than running back, plus Bell is an injury-prone back, so it’s hard not to at least consider these four wide receivers ahead of Bell.
But on the other hand, it’s silly to stay away from running back in the first round completely because of injury concerns. To a certain degree, every tail back has injury risk just by nature of the position.
At the end of the day, whether Bell goes No. 1 overall is really personal preference. Some owners aren’t going to like the risk of taking Bell first overall, and that’s perfectly justified. He has legitimate injury concerns, and wide receivers have caught up to fantasy running backs in terms of point production. The days of automatically plugging in a running back over a receiver in the flex position are gone, especially in PPR.
However, other owners who don’t mind the risk will draft Bell first and that’s perfectly fine too. Running back is a very shallow position, so grabbing that top back is more vital than ever in building a championship roster.
And if running back is one’s target early in the first, there isn’t a better one than Bell. Todd Gurley, David Johnson and Adrian Peterson will seemingly round out the top four and are the other options to choose instead of Bell, but they all have their drawbacks too, making him the consensus choice for top running back. If healthy, there’s little doubt Bell will live up to being the No. 1 overall selection.
My personal choice? I like to take risks but not usually with my first pick, particularly if it’s No. 1. In my mind, that’s a choice one cannot afford to get wrong, so I would go with Brown as the top selection.
But at a certain point early in the first round, Bell’s value is going to outweigh the risk. When the top tiered receivers are gone, and Bell’s upside will be too high to ignore. Passing him up at No. 1 is justifiable, but it’s not at No. 4 even though his risk stays the same.
He may not go first overall in every league, but the Steelers running back is my third overall player, and he should absolutely be gone in every league by No. 5.
The post Le’Veon Bell Shouldn’t Be Consensus No. 1 pick appeared first on Today's Pigskin.
