Fantasy fallout of the Martavis Bryant suspension

This past Monday the Pittsburhg Steelers’ Martavis Bryant received a minimum one-year suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. The wide receiver, who is no stranger to suspensions, obviously has damaged his fantasy football value not only for the 2016 season but possibly longer in dynasty/keeper leagues. The fantasy impact of his suspension doesn’t stop with Bryant but also extends to his Pittsburgh Steelers’ offensive teammates.

Ben Roethlisberger, Quarterback – Fantasy Value: Down

Even after the suspension of his second wide receiver, Roethlisberger is still a top-10 fantasy quarterback in 2016. Even with the loss of Bryant, the signal caller still has plenty of options to choose from with the likes of Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell still on the roster. But there is reason to rank the quarterback lower than originally planned as you prep for your 2016 fantasy drafts.

The loss of Bryant will hurt Big Ben, especially in the end zone. In 19 games with Bryant on the field, the passer has averaged 2.16 touchdown passes per game while Roethlisberger has just a 1.33 touchdown pass per game average with Bryant in street clothes. With touchdowns being the end all in fantasy scoring if this dip continues it will be a severe hit to Ben’s worth in 2016. And the drop off in the quarterback’s production without the young wide receiver doesn’t end there. In fact you will find a big disparity in most of Roethlisberger’s stats based on the availability of Martavis Bryant.The quarterback throws an average of six more passes and for an average of 57.9 yards less in games that Bryant plays

With Bryant being forced to miss the season while he hopefully gets his life in order should have fantasy football players cooling on Big Ben for 2016.

Le’Veon Bell, Running Back – Fantasy Value: Up 

When you are a consensus top-two selection in 2016 fantasy football drafts it is not likely that the loss of your team’s second wide receiver is going to have a major impact on your impending draft selection slot. This is exactly the case with Bell. But with that said there are some interesting stats to consider when looking at the running back’s production over the past two seasons with and without Bryant in uniform that makes the case for him being the top pick in your league’s draft.

Perhaps the biggest of these stats in regards to fantasy production is rushing attempts. In the three games that Bell and Bryant both played in last season, the running back received 17 rush attempts per game. But without the wide receiver on the field, Bell’s usage increased to 20.67 carries. With volume being king in determining fantasy value of running backs this uptick in touches certainly won’t hurt him in 2016.

Also of significance is that all three of his rushing touchdowns in 2015 happened in the games in which Bryant did not play. This correlates well with the decrease in touchdown passes thrown by Roethlisberger without Bryant. If this emphasis on the run game continues for the Steelers in 2016 with Bryant out for the season, Bell should find himself as the top flex position fantasy scorer this next NFL season.

Antonio Brown, Wide Receiver – Fantasy Value: Unchanged

 Over the past two seasons, Brown has benefitted from being on the field at the same time as Martavis Bryant. In about every statistical measure the wide receiver performed better with him than without him.

But a closer look at the numbers suggests that the potential top pick in this year’s fantasy football draft will be just fine without Bryant lining up opposite of him. Even when Bryant was missing from the Steelers’ huddle in the past, Brown still averaged 104.7 receiving yards in those games. Last year that total would have been second best among pass catchers in the league, behind just Julio Jones. Even with the loss of Bryant to the yearlong suspension, move forward as planned with Antonio Brown in the upcoming fantasy season.

Markus Wheaton, Wide Receiver – Fantasy Value: Down

With Bryant missing the season due to the suspension, it would seem logical to think that Markus Wheaton is the next man up and would have no problem fillings his teammate’s shoes. Unfortunately that’s just not the case. Bryant is a top-10 wide receiver talent while Wheaton will never be confused for having an elite skill set. And to make things worse, the numbers suggest that he has struggled in the past trying to fill Bryant’s shoe. In fact, Wheaton’s best performances have been when he has shared the field with Bryant as he has caught six touchdowns in games in which he played with Bryant and just one in the 11 games he has played without the suspended star.

The truth is instead of worrying about replacing Bryant, Wheaton should be concerning himself with fending off second-year wide receiver Sammie Coates as he tries to move up the depth chart. Coates has a skill set more closely related to Bryant’s but seems to find boneheaded ways to keep himself out of the rotation.

So even though Wheaton will get the first chance at replacing Bryant at the wide receiver spot opposite of Brown, let someone else reach on the average wide receiver. In 11 games without Bryant, Wheaton is averaging just three receptions and 45.91 yards per game with a total of just one touchdown.

Ladarius Green, Tight End- Fantasy Value: Up

Becoming a full-time starter as well as the suspension of Bryant will have the often-hyped tight end’s fantasy value at an all time high. Although most of it was done as a back up to future Hall of Famer Antonio Gates, Green finished 2015 with just 37 catches and 429 yards. But in the four starts that he made for Gates last season, the 25-year-old tight end finished with 18 receptions, 219 yards and three touchdowns. Over the course of a 16-game schedule that pace comes out to 72 catches, 876 yards and 12 scores.

But before you go all in on Green keep in mind that in four seasons with the Chargers the tight end failed to record a single 100-yard game and had a total of seven touchdowns. And it does not help his case that at best he will be the third option in the passing game with Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell getting most of Ben Roethlisberger’s attention.

If Green is going to make a big fantasy impact in 2016 it will because he was able to fill the void left by Bryant down in the end zone. Since he entered the league he has 29 end zone targets, which is the fourth most in that time.

While there is no arguing that Green’s fantasy value is on the rise, it likely will jump too high now with the suspension of Bryant causing someone to reach much too soon for the tight end. Let the tight end ride and strike on the position in a later round.

Hopefully for Martavis Bryant, he will be able to use the time off from the suspension to better himself as a person and he will be back on the football field much sooner than later. But, for now in terms of his suspension, the effects reach well past him for the Steelers’ offensive players.

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