Fantasy Football: Mike Wallace worth a flier

Once heralded the next great fantasy wide receiver, Mike Wallace has been forgotten ever since refusing to attend training camp in the summer of 2012.

Rather than report to camp and then work on an extension with the Steelers, Wallace decided to play hardball. Pittsburgh turned around and handed his extension to Antonio Brown. It turns out Brown also took Wallace’s title of “the next great fantasy wide receiver.”

For Wallace, he hasn’t been the same player since, but the now 29-year-old seems to have learned from his previous mistakes. Rather than go for the biggest payday (which there probably wasn’t one this time around), he went for an ideal fit where he can succeed. And fantasy owners should take notice.

It turns out we were all wrong about Wallace in the first three years of his career. He didn’t become an elite receiver like Brown, Dez Bryant or Jordy Nelson. Wallace’s production is very dependent on his quarterback.

He is also pretty much a one-trick pony. Wallace has broken wide-receiver screens and slant patterns into very long touchdown receptions, but offensive coordinators can only call so many of those plays. His best route is the simplest one in the book … the vertical, where he can use his speed.

Although the route is simple, not all offenses can routinely throw the ball downfield. Vertical patterns don’t work on offenses that struggle to pass block. As fast as Wallace is, it takes him longer to run 40 yards than it does for his quarterback to turn and throw a screen.

In Miami, the Dolphins didn’t have the pass blocking to allow Wallace to run down the field like he did in Pittsburgh. Interestingly, he basically caught the same amount of passes with the Dolphins, but his yards per catch average suffered. As a result, so did his fantasy value.

Over three years as a starter in Pittsburgh, he averaged 65.3 catches, 1,095.3 yards and 8.7 touchdowns per season. He also recorded 16.8 yards per catch. Wallace led the league with a 19.4 yards per reception average in his rookie season, and then he set a new career-high of 21.0 yards per catch in 2010.

During his two seasons with the Dolphins, he averaged 70 receptions, 896 yards and 7.5 touchdowns per year. His yards per catch average dropped to 12.8.

Not only was Ryan Tannehill not as good of a quarterback as Ben Roethlisberger, but Tannehill didn’t have any protection either. The Miami signal caller was sacked a league-leading 58 times in Wallace’s first season with the team and then 46 more times in 2014.

Dec. 27, 2015 – Minneapolis, MN, U.S. – Mike Wallace (11) could not hang on to a Teddy Bridgewater pass in the end zone while being defended by Trevin Wade (31) in the first quarter. (Photo by Carlos Gonzalez/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire)

Minnesota proved to be even worse for the speedy wide receiver. The Vikings’ run-first mentality killed Wallace’s value. Minnesota also didn’t have the pass blocking to allow for quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to look for Wallace down the field. Bridgewater only targeted Wallace 72 times, which tied a career low.

The last time Wallace received 72 targets, he caught 39 passes in his rookie season. Guess what … he hauled in 39 passes for the Vikings in 2015. But unfortunately, he did lead the league in yards per catch. He posted a measly 12.1 average to finish with 473 yards and two touchdowns.

All three of those numbers were career lows.

After a year of fantasy irrelevancy and several years of disappointment, it would be very easy to cast Wallace aside. However, that’s not a good idea.

Baltimore has its problems on offense, but a lot of them stem from a lack of deep threat, rather than having a poor quarterback or offensive line. Even though Wallace may not be as fast as he once was, now in the final days of his 20’s, he is the deep threat Joe Flacco needs.

Over the last five years, many analysts have called Flacco’s arm one of the top five strongest in the league, yet he finished 26th in Air Yards in 2015. Air Yards is total passing yards minus yards after the catch, so it measures how far a quarterback’s completions traveled in the air.

For having one of the best arms and an above average offensive line—Pro Football Focus ranked the Ravens 15th in pass blocking—Flacco sure didn’t complete many passes downfield.

The days of Wallace contending for the most yards per catch in the league are over, but he can definitely still be a force in the right situation. He hopes that’s Baltimore.

Given that Fantasy Pros didn’t bother to rank Wallace’s ADP, it’s safe to say he is going to go late in drafts. If the right situation presents itself like it did to the Ravens, take a flier on him.

The post Fantasy Football: Mike Wallace worth a flier appeared first on Today's Pigskin.