“They see me as an every-down back.”
According to Matt Forte, he’s as healthy as ever and expecting to see another 300 touches next season.
This is a 30-year-old (31 in December) running back that already has 2,035 carries and 487 receptions through his eight-year career. Usually when backs hit those numbers, they fall off and can’t produce at the same rate.
Last season, Forte picked up an injury in the middle of the year, let Jeremy Langford show his stuff and they formed a 1-2 punch the final six weeks of the season. Forte’s 4.1 yards per carry was a bit lower than what he reached at his peak seasons, but still better than what he did in 2014. The Bears offensive line was a mess, so that’s to be taken into account as well.
Chris Ivory had a solid season in New York last year, surpassing 1,000 rushing yards to go with eight total touchdowns and 4.3 yards per carry. They are two different runners, that’s for sure, but it’s good to know the Jets could run the ball last year.
But is Forte really going to be an every-down back like he says?
Forte’s deal with the Jets is three years for $12 million with $8 million guaranteed. New York’s third-down back from last year, Bilal Powell, is just under that with a three-year deal worth $11.25 million and $6 million guaranteed.
So the Jets decided to pay these guys almost the same amount yet make Forte the every-down back and increase the odds he gets an injury? Probably not.
Forte is listed as a top-15 running back at the FantasyPros consensus rankings at the moment, which seems a bit high.
Ivory was good last year with the Jets, but as a different type of runner, he often busted through the first level and had long gains. Ivory had a run of at least 19 yards in 10 of his 15 games last year doing just that.
Forte, in his older age, is a much more patient runner that doesn’t break those kinds of runs. He always moves the chains, but he isn’t going to power/speed through the first line of defense. In Forte’s final 11 games last season, he failed to pick up a run of more than 16 yards. The year before was similar. Forte isn’t the same type of runner anymore and with less touches than what he’s expecting, it’s hard to see him being a top-15 running back again.
There is still a question at quarterback for the Jets. If Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t return, they’re going to have a major issue at that position and that will allow defenses to focus more on their ground game. If that’s the case, it could be a long season for Forte, who has always been a part of a dangerous passing game with Jay Cutler.
Some running backs getting ranked below Forte include Carlos Hyde, Jonathan Stewart, Jeremy Langford, Latavius Murray and DeMarco Murray. I’d put all of them above Forte. Those are all younger running backs that are ready to see the majority of touches for their respective teams.
Powell will be there all season to steal touches from Forte, probably more importantly in the passing game where Forte excels. Khiry Robinson could end up being the goal line back for the Jets as well, after rushing four in last year.
Forte is a great running back and still has some gas left in the tank, but if he can stay healthy for an entire year while getting 20-plus touches per game, it’d be a surprise.
Matt Forte is truly a risky pick with where he’s getting ranked and I’ll be passing on him if that doesn’t change by August.
The post Pump brakes on Matt Forte’s fantasy value for next season appeared first on Today's Pigskin.