It is hard to find a player who provoked more reactions, good or bad, out of fans in 2015 than Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton.
Although he may have a love or hate relationship with most fans, his fantasy value cannot be denied. In standard leagues, he led all players with 389.1 fantasy points, and second place was more than 40 points behind him.
Newton posted some monster numbers in 2015, many of which might not be repeatable. He became the first quarterback to throw for at least 30 touchdowns and score 10 more on the ground in the same season. But there are still plenty of reasons to believe Newton will finish as a top-three quarterback, if not the best overall fantasy player, again in 2016.
What really separates Newton from his fellow quarterbacks is his rushing totals. To go with the 10 rushing touchdowns, he gained 636 rushing yards, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. For most quarterbacks, those numbers aren’t sustainable year-to-year.
In 2014, Russell Wilson led all quarterbacks with 849 rushing yards and six touchdowns. He followed that up with 553 yards on the ground and just one score this past season. In 2013, Geno Smith led signal callers with six rushing scores. We probably don’t have to go into what happened to him the next year.
If for nothing else but the law of averages, the likelihood Newton records 10 rushing touchdowns again this season is slim to none. The only other time Newton had a season with double-digit scores was his rookie season when he set a new quarterback record with 14. The following year, however, he scored eight. That’s still impressive, but a reduction of 36 fantasy points nonetheless.
So if he doesn’t get 10 touchdowns, how many should owners expect? Enough to still be considered a candidate for the No. 1 fantasy QB ranking.
In each of Newton’s five NFL seasons, he has never rushed for fewer than 539 yards or five touchdowns. At some point, he is going to have to become solely a pocket passer because the hits, even for someone of Newton’s size, will wear down any quarterback. But he turns just 27 in May, so there is no reason to believe he isn’t going to at least hit his career lows this season.
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That means owners can set 500 rushing yards and five touchdowns as his floor. Assuming he gets those marks, that would be about 43 fewer fantasy points than last season.
Newton edged Tom Brady for the highest scorer in standard leagues by 45 points a year ago. Presuming Newton can hit all his other totals (3,837 yards, 35 touchdowns, 10 interceptions), and all the other quarterbacks’ final numbers are the same, Newton would still be the highest scorer.
So the next question is can Newton repeat 35 passing touchdowns? He had never even thrown for 25 scores before 2015, but again, there is one big reason to believe last season won’t be an outlier in Newton’s career. He posted those incredible numbers in 2015 without top wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin. As a rookie, Benjamin caught 73 passes for 1,008 yards and nine touchdowns in 2014.
With him back, along with playmakers like Greg Olsen, Jonathan Stewart and Ted Ginn, the Panthers offense is going to be more explosive in 2016. Ginn was a great deep receiver for Carolina last season, but adding Benjamin back into the mix will really discourage defenses from stacking the box to slow down Newton in the running game.
As great as the quarterback was on the ground last year, his 4.8 yards per carry was a career low. If he gets back up around his career average of 5.4, he should easily eclipse his floor (500 yards, five touchdowns).
Even with Benjamin back, 35 passing touchdowns still seems like a lot, but it isn’t out of the question. This can’t be considered a hard floor like his rushing numbers, but 30 scores through the air with the potential for more sounds like a decent estimate.
Like with any pass-option quarterback, Newton’s rushing numbers make him a riskier selection on draft day because those totals can greatly vary year-to-year. Furthermore, the fact he runs so often gives him a greater chance of injury.
But Newton is about as consistent under center as it gets in terms of rushing yards, and his running ability gives him the highest ceiling of any quarterback in fantasy. If owners are willing to bet that he can come close his passing totals with his No. 1 receiver back, he will be in the conversation as the top scorer in fantasy once again.
Owners in love with the upside should target Newton as the top quarterback.
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