With the Chicago Bears’ much-anticipated announcement earlier this offseason that veteran running back Matt Forte would not be returning to the club for the 2016 campaign, the fantasy football love for Chicago’s Jeremy Langford has reached an all-time high. Many early season rankings have the second-year running back ranked inside the top-15 at the position and the likes of Scout Fantasy has really gotten in on the excitement as they have Langford ranked as the eighth-best fantasy football ball carrier for the upcoming season.
And at first glance the excitement for what Langford might do in his first crack as a starting running back in the NFL is warranted. As a rookie he did put together a modest four-game streak in which he scored double-digit fantasy points when Matt Forte missed the first of those three games due to injury and returned in limited fashion for the final game of that streak. But a look deeper in to the numbers does not paint as an optimistic picture for Langford in his second-season in the National Football League.
Let’s start by looking at Langford’s rookie season first. In 2015 the running back averaged just 3.6 yards per carry, which ranked him 41st in the league among players that rushed the ball at least 103 times last season. With three of those players ahead of him being quarterbacks, he had the 38th highest yards per carry average among running backs in 2015, tied with players that won’t be confused as fantasy studs such as Tennessee’s Antonio Andrews and Cleveland’s Duke Johnson.
So if he had such a low rushing number last season how was Langford able to put together such a nice month-long fantasy performance whining filling in for Matt Forte in 2015? Well the answer is touchdowns and receptions. In the four games that he filled in for Matt Forte the back up running back was able to score five touchdowns and finished the season scoring a touchdown every 24.29 touches. Because of his limited sample size there is no way of knowing if he can maintain that average moving forward but it seems unlikely. In 2015 Adrian Peterson scored a touchdown every 32.45 touches while Todd Gurley found paydirt every 25 touches and there certainly is no mistaking the Bears’ new starter for a Pro Bowler like those two backs.
22 August 2015: A Chicago Bears helmet rests on the field in action during a week 2 preseason NFL game between the Indianapolis Colts and Chicago Bears at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN.
Well even if he isn’t scoring touchdowns he will still be a threat in the passing game right? Not exactly. Despite catching 22 passes last season his catch rate was well-below league average at just 52% as he saw 42 passing targets in 2015. According to Football Outsiders, of the 58 running backs that saw at least 25 passes thrown their way, Langford’s catch rate was the lowest. And the news gets worse for the Bears’ new starting running back. Football Outsiders also scores him with a -6.7% DVOA, which ranks him 33rd out of those 58 running backs that saw at least 25 targets in the passing game.
And if Langford’s fantasy prospects for 2016 didn’t look bleak enough yet for you, keep in mind that his head coach is John Fox. The Bears’ leader has never been a friend to fantasy football enthusiasts. Fox is a firm believer in a running back by committee approach and has already sung the praise of Langford’s backfield mate Ka’Deem Carey this offseason. Just last week at the NFL Combine, Fox had this to say about the Bears’ Carey, “I think he’s a guy that after contact is pretty special. Something that sticks out to me, I enjoy watching him run”. Although at this time of year we hear a lot of lip service there appears to be something to this praise. Carey finished 2015 with 159 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 43 carries and likely will get more work this upcoming season with Forte’s departure, which certainly will cut into Langford’s fantasy worth. And this cut should worry possible Langford owners especially with Fox at the helm.
The top-10 fantasy football running backs last season averaged 235.9 carries on the year. But in Fox’s 14 years as an NFL head coach his teams have had a total of just five running breaks reach at least 236 carries in a season and just one ball carrier playing for him hit that mark in his last four seasons as a head coach. Historically, Fox’s teams have shared the ball among the running backs on the roster. The lead runner for Fox’s teams have averaged just 224.9 carries per season while the second backs have received an average of 131.4 rush attempts each year. So don’t count on Langford being a one-man show and carry a large load in the Bears’ offense in 2016.
While Matt Forte may no longer wear the blue and orange, there is no guarantee that Langford will fill his shoes alone and the numbers support that it will be a tough road ahead for the second-year ball carrier in 2016. So despite the excitement of Langford becoming Chicago’s starter don’t reach on the running back in your 2016 fantasy drafts and instead target him as more of a late teens, early 20s-ranked running back for next season’s fantasy football campaign.
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