Even the most novice fantasy football players are aware of the impending decline that a running back is about to embark on when the ball carrier reaches the age of 30. Of the top 250 single-season rushing performances in the history of the NFL, runners that were 29 years old or younger own 235 of them. So it makes sense to see a running back that is on the wrong side of 29 fall in fantasy football drafts. But on occasion this slide creates fantasy value for the player even as their skill set diminishes. This rare feat is currently taking place with the New York Jets’ Matt Forte.
Even after finishing as the ninth-highest scoring fantasy running back last season, Forte, who turned 30 in December, finds himself slipping in current fantasy drafts. Scout.com for example has the ball carrier as the 24th running back being selected with a current ADP of 89.13.
There is no denying that his fantasy value is falling as the 2016 NFL season nears. In addition to turning 30 years old, Forte is coming off a season in which he missed three games to injury. He also finds himself in a crowded backfield as the Jets re-signed Bilal Powell and added Khiry Robinson this offseason.
Despite all the reasons that Forte’s fantasy arrow is pointing down, as the 24th running back being selected in current fantasy drafts the veteran now provides some value. Last season the 24th scoring ball carrier in standard scoring leagues was the Green Bay Packers’ James Starks. The Packers’ back up running back averaged just 7.7 fantasy points per game played. In order for Forte — who averaged 13.1 fantasy points per game played — to see his fantasy production match Starks’, he would have to decline at a 41% rate. While he almost certainly will see a negative change in production in 2016, taking a look at a couple of primary running backs that turned 31 in 2015 makes it tough to imagine such a huge decline in such a short amount of time for Forte.
Danny Woodhead Age Games Played Fantasy Points Fantasy Points per Game
2014 30 3 7.2 2.4
2015 31 16 163.1 10.2
Difference +13 +155.9 +7.8
Rashard Jennings Age Games Played Fantasy Points Fantasy Points per Game
2014 30 11 108.5 9.9
2015 31 16 135.9 8.5
Difference +5 +27.4 -1.4
While Woodhead saw massive gains a year after turning 30, expect Forte to have a season more like Jennings in 2016. He carried the ball on just 195 of the Giants’ 403 rushing attempts. While this split in workload led to a regression in fantasy production, he was able to stay healthy for the duration of the season. Even though Jennings ended up with less fantasy points per game in 2015 the regression was modest at just 14% as opposed to the 41% it would take for Forte’s fantasy points per game to fall to warrant him being the 24th running back selected in fantasy football drafts for the 2016 season.
Knowing that a fall from fantasy graces is coming in 2016 for Forte, let’s try to take a look at what this upcoming season may look like for the new Jets running back. If his decline is similar to what Jennings’ was in 2015 — let’s say a 15% fall, Forte would finish 2016 with 145 fantasy points. In 2015, that point total would have made the Jet the 18th-best running back in fantasy football.
And this is where the value, despite the decline, comes into play. With a current ADP of 89, you could in theory draft Matt Forte with the 89th pick and receive the 18th fantasy running back even though he is being drafted as the 24th.
With fantasy football drafts being all about value, Forte can be a good get for your team in 2016 despite an expected decline now that he is 30 years old because the price is right for the new Jets starting ball carrier.
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