The biggest and probably most talked about quarterback move of the offseason has been Brock Osweiler to the Houston Texans. After limited appearances with the Broncos over the last four years, he was given a four-year, $72 million deal.
For a guy that has only attempted 305 passes in his career, that seems like a lot. But the Texans have faith in their new quarterback. The hope is that Osweiler will flourish with head coach Bill O’Brien, who is known for getting the most out of his QBs.
While quarterback was a weak spot for the Texans last year, their crew of passers (Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates, Brandon Weeden) combined to throw 28 touchdowns and 12 interceptions (Cecil Shorts also threw one). Those are respectable numbers considering they allowed just 24 and 12 to opposing QBs.
The addition of Osweiler into the offense will hopefully give more upside as well as some consistency. Extrapolating Houston’s passing numbers from last year to Osweiler for the entire season would put him right around the top 12 in fantasy football. And that’s simply saying Osweiler will be equal to the quarterbacks Houston had last year. If he’s worse… well, then the Texans made a terrible mistake.
But logically, it’s safe to assume Osweiler should match the 28 passing touchdowns the Texans had from a year ago, as well as be around the 4,000-yard mark.
Their offensive line isn’t a strong suit, but it’s not a glaringly weakness either. They lost two guys, but also added two more, so the line’s success may take a few weeks into the season to allow them to gel together.
If Lamar Miller can stay healthy for the entire season, they’ll also have a boost at running back. And more importantly, Osweiler will get to throw to DeAndre Hopkins, who finished with 192 targets last year. Tight end is still a question, but second-year receiver Jaelen Strong should see a bigger role in the offense to go with Cecil Shorts. It also wouldn’t be surprising if the Texans grabbed a tight end or receiver in the draft.
In eight games with the Broncos last year, Osweiler was adequate, completing 61.8% of his passes for 1,967 yards, 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. In three straight games late in the year, Osweiler threw for at least 296 yards. Yes, he was benched for Peyton Manning in the last game of the season, but not exactly because Manning was better than him.
At the moment, Osweiler’s spot in the FantasyPros consensus rankings is rather interesting. Not many are expecting him to provide much in terms of fantasy, and he’s ranked as around the No. 26 quarterback. Given the above information, that seems a bit odd.
Brian Hoyer was the No. 25 quarterback last season and only played in 11 games. Are people thinking Osweiler won’t make it the entire season, or that he’s actually worse than Hoyer?
I could list all of the quarterbacks getting ranked above Osweiler that don’t deserve to be, but most of those go without saying. Do Sam Bradford or Joe Flacco truly have more upside than Osweiler? Not at all.
Osweiler doesn’t have much experience and is coming into a new team, but the Texans are putting a lot of trust into him. Maybe he won’t be tossing for 40 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, but to think he’s going to completely flop and not even throw for 20 TDs would be a mistake.
His interception rate will probably be higher than Hoyer’s because he did have a penchant to throw some risky passes last year, but his upside is also higher. An offseason with O’Brien should also help matters.
Liken Osweiler to Matthew Stafford when he had Calvin Johnson. While it was a vastly different offense, Stafford was always a consideration in fantasy circles because he was throwing to Johnson. Why can’t the same be said for Osweiler and Hopkins?
Hopkins was close to unstoppable last year (1,521 yards, 11 TDs) with Hoyer being his best quarterback. The ceiling only grows for Hopkins with a better QB and that means Osweiler should be shown more respect in terms of fantasy.
If you like playing quarterback carousel on your fantasy squad, Osweiler will be a good option to consider, as he won’t cost much and plays in the AFC South, last year’s worst division.
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