Normally, owners don’t have to be reminded to beware of a running back returning from a season-ending injury, but that appears to be the case with Baltimore Ravens back Justin Forsett.
Based on Fantasy Pros’ extremely early preseason rankings, Forsett has a minus-19 differential between his overall ranking and ADP, meaning fantasy owners are drafting him nearly two rounds before the consensus fantasy expert believes he should be selected.
What’s interesting is it’s not like owners haven’t definitely adjusted their opinions on Forsett after the disappointing 2015 season. He was a consensus second-round pick last year, and as it stands now, he is projected to be a ninth-round selection this fall.
Even that, though, might be a little high.
Forsett played for four different teams over six seasons before finally landing in Baltimore before the 2014 season. After the Ray Rice fiasco, the Ravens backfield was left in shambles, so the journeyman took advantage of his opportunity and posted one of the best fantasy seasons for a running back that year.
On just 235 carries, Forsett rushed for 1,266 yards, which was fifth-most in the NFL. He also led all running backs with 5.4 yards per carry. Over the final seven weeks of the season, he averaged 13.9 fantasy points in standard leagues.
Those kinds of numbers will turn any fantasy irrelevant back into a top selection the following year.
But in 2015, the journeyman running back looked much more like his old self. He hit the 100-yard mark in a game just twice, as he rushed for just 641 yards and two touchdowns in 10 games. Forsett averaged just 4.2 yards per carry and 9.1 fantasy points per week in standard leagues.
Judging that he is already 30 and only has one season with 1,000 rushing yards, it would be easy to call Forsett a one-hit wonder. There’s more to it than that.
Gary Kubiak, who I like to call the running back whisper, was Baltimore’s offensive coordinator in 2014, and his run-first system was a perfect match for Forsett.
Kubiak has been an offensive play-caller either as a head coach or offensive coordinator with four teams since 1995, and during that time, eight different running backs, Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, Reuben Droughns, Steve Slaton, Arian Foster and Forsett, have rushed for 1,000 yards in a single season while playing in Kubiak’s scheme.
In 21 years as a play-caller, a running back has rushed for 1,000 yards in 15 of them. And by looking at those names, it clearly didn’t matter if they were All-Pros or no-names, the backs were always productive in his system.
But as most fantasy owners probably know, Kubiak left for Denver after 2014, and Marc Trestman was hired to replace him. Trestman was once a running back coach in the mid-1980’s with the Minnesota Vikings, but since returning to the NFL in 2013 as head coach in Chicago, he has never been dedicated to the running game.
During the final 10 games of 2014, Forsett averaged 17.1 carries per contest. That average dropped to 15.1 per game in the new offense.
The biggest positive for owners having a running back in Trestman’s system is his offense usually leads to a lot of short completions out of the backfield, but that isn’t one of Forsett’s strengths. He caught just 31 passes for 153 yards in 10 starts last season.
To conclude, yes, owners have dropped Forsett on their draft boards but maybe for the wrong reason. Some owners appear willing to take a flier on him during the ninth round and hope he rebounds from his injury.
However, it’s not like he’s recovering from an ACL or some other type of leg issue. He broke his arm, which is probably the most ideal injury for a running back.
Whether he recovers from injury is not the No. 1 risk in drafting Forsett. That would be the bad fit he appears to be with Trestman’s system.
Owners shouldn’t consider Forsett more than a RB4 or RB5.
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