One of the biggest cardinal rules to fantasy football drafts is always target players in great offenses over guys on bad teams. Of course, like any rule, there are always exceptions, and San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Torrey Smith may be one of those special cases in 2016.
Smith was largely disappointing during his first season in San Francisco, catching just 33 balls for 663 yards and four touchdowns. Those were all career lows and in many of the categories, it wasn’t even close. And despite playing all 16 games, he scored more than 10 points in standard leagues just three times.
The good news about Smith’s fantasy value moving forward is his career-low numbers weren’t the result of deteriorating play on his part. Like a lot of good, but not great, receivers, he is completely reliant on quarterback play. With Joe Flacco in Baltimore, Smith averaged 53.25 catches, 897.75 receiving yards, and 7.5 touchdowns per seasons. Most importantly, Flacco targeted him 108.5 times per year.
With Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert under center, Smith was only targeted 62 times last season.
Interestingly, Smith’s numbers were nearly identical with both quarterbacks starting eight games each. During the first half of the year with Kaepernick, Smith had 16 catches, 342 yards and two touchdowns. Then, in the final eight games, while working with Gabbert, the 26-year-old receiver had 17 receptions, 321 yards and two touchdowns.
Fantasy owners should monitor the latest drama with Kaepernick and the trade possibilities all summer, but unfortunately, as it stands right now, the 49ers quarterback situation is no better than it was a year ago. However, there are reasons to be optimistic about Smith’s fantasy value.
First off, San Francisco hired offensive-minded coach Chip Kelly to replace Jim Tomsula. Kelly definitely made his mistakes in Philadelphia, but he did an excellent job of developing quarterbacks and using vertical receivers during his first two seasons with the Eagles.
In 2013, a year after his most disappointing season as a pro, DeSean Jackson posted career highs of 82 catches, 1,332 yards and nine touchdowns. Then in 2014, Jeremy Maclin came back from an ACL tear to haul in 85 receptions for 1,318 yards and 10 touchdowns. Maclin recorded a career-high 15.5 yards per catch during his one season in Kelly’s offense.
The only good thing about Smith’s 2015 season was that same category – yards per catch. San Francisco’s No. 1 receiver led the league with 20.1 yards per reception.
One would think that no matter who ends up playing quarterback for the 49ers this season, Kelly is going to do his best to design specific plays for Smith and get the ball in his hands on deep, vertical routes, just as he did with Jackson and Maclin.
The other reason to be optimistic about Smith is his very low ADP. According to Fantasy Pros, he has a very early overall ADP of 217.0; the Fantasy Pros experts ranked him the 140th-best available player, which gives him a plus-77 differential between his rank and ADP. That’s the third-highest positive differential of any player, meaning he is one of the most undervalued fantasy players heading into 2016.
Now, this doesn’t mean Smith is worthy of starter consideration. Fantasy Pros ranks him the 56th-best wide receiver, so even in 14-team leagues, he will probably barely be worth consideration in the FLEX position.
But late in the draft, Smith can provide some tremendous value and become one of the first receivers off the bench during bye weeks. His upside from being among the leaders in yards per catch will be preferable to third and fourth wide receivers in good offenses most weeks.
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