A year after watching the Rams’ Todd Gurley take fantasy football by storm in his rookie season, running back Ezekiel Elliott already had fantasy players giddy with excitement even before being selected by the Dallas Cowboys with the fourth overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft.
Prior to being drafted by America’s Team, the former Ohio State Buckeye already owned an average draft position (ADP) of 18th overall according to Scout.com. Based on his production in college, it is tough to blame fantasy players for their excitement for the running back.
The ball carrier was a dominant player at the college level. In two years as a starter at OSU, Elliott finished with 3,961 rushing yards and 43 rushing touchdowns. He also hauled in 58 catches for 449 yards out of the backfield.
Now that he is a member of the Dallas Cowboys, the fantasy appeal of Elliott should only continue to grow as he instantly becomes the cowbell ball-carrier for Dallas as the other running backs on the Cowboys’ roster leaving something to be desired. But what should be expected of him as a rookie in 2016?
Well to start, since 2012 there have been five running backs selected in the first round of the NFL draft. These five backs averaged 901.8 rushing yards, 250.6 receiving yards and 7.8 total touchdowns in their rookie campaign. That type of stat line would result in a fantasy point total of 162.04.
In 2015, that fantasy point total would have been good enough for eighth-best among running backs. For a back as skilled as Elliott these numbers appear to be the floor regarding his expected production this upcoming NFL season. And this is especially true with Elliott now getting the chance to run behind one of the top offensive lines in the NFL.
According to FootballOutsiders.com, the Cowboys’ offensive line was one of the best in the league in 2015. The big uglies up front for Dallas helped their running backs rush for 4.53 yards per carry last season, fourth best in the league. And more importantly, the guys up front for Dallas owned an adjusted line yards of 4.11. This total was sixth-best in the league last season and measures the yards gained by the responsibility of the offensive line.
These metrics make sense as last season that Cowboys’ offensive line helped Darren McFadden become fantasy relevant for the first time in his NFL career. He finished the 2015 season with 1,089 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. He also chipped in with 40 receptions and 328 receiving yards. All in all, McFadden’s season was good enough to finish 2015 as the 14th-ranked fantasy running back.
Now, before you reach on the rookie running back in your fantasy drafts, of course, he will need to prove he can pass-block this summer, but the former Buckeye has the ability and situation with the Cowboys to be a top-10 fantasy running back as a rookie in 2016. Look to draft Elliott at the end of the second round to early third round range in your upcoming fantasy drafts and count on the ball carrier to at least match the production of McFadden in 2015.
Elliott, at the very least, should be a high end RB2 for the upcoming NFL season. Having finished his last year at Ohio State University with 40 catches, showing that Elliott can indeed catch the football out of the backfield, the running back should be a three-down player for the Cowboys in 2016 and is playing behind an elite Dallas’ offensive line.
All of this adds up to Elliott making an instant impact in fantasy football similar to how Todd Gurley did last season. Don’t be hesitant to grab the running back as you build your 2016 fantasy football team.
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