Across the board, many draft experts loved the Houston Texans selecting Notre Dame wide receiver Will Fuller in the first round. After all, the speedy wideout ran a 4.32-second 40-yard dash, which was the fastest time at the 2016 NFL combine. Fuller is expected to find a very nice home playing opposite DeAndre Hopkins, who practically carried the Houston offense all by himself in 2015.
It just might not happen in 2016. There are enough warning flags surrounding the 22-year-old rookie that owners in re-draft leagues will want to be wary about drafting the Texans new offensive weapon too early.
The biggest concerns with Fuller are some of his physical traits. He dropped nine passes in each of his final two seasons at Notre Dame, so his hands are a huge question. At 6-foot, 186 pounds, he is also undersized for an outside receiver. Furthermore, Fuller is reportedly not a very refined route runner, particularly on intermediate routes.
Below average hands and route running ability, along with a small frame, makes it awfully tough to see Fuller making an impact catching passes over the middle of the field next season. The Texans drafted him because he could take the top off a defense and help Houston’s vertical passing game.
But it really shouldn’t be a surprise if that’s all he does in 2016, and if that’s the case, owners could be looking at the next Ted Ginn Jr, who, coincidentally, NFL.com compared Fuller to in his draft bio.
Last season at Notre Dame, Fuller led the team with 62 catches, 1,258 yards and 14 touchdowns. If we were to assign fantasy points to the Notre Dame receiver, he would have averaged 16.1 fantasy points per game.
Let’s take touchdowns out of the equation for a minute. Fuller registered at least 120 receiving yards in six games last season, but he also had four games with under 60 yards.
Now, the 14 touchdowns saved him. He scored in every game but three, so really, those were the only contests where he posted fewer than 10.0 fantasy points, but in terms of yardage, Fuller was a bit of an all or nothing type guy. Even though he finished his junior season with a 20.3 yards per catch average, which was 11th-best in the nation, if opponents shut down the Notre Dame deep attack, Fuller wasn’t nearly as effective.
Therefore, it’s hard not to view Fuller as anything but a boom-or-bust fantasy commodity for his rookie season — just like Ted Ginn was in 2015 with the Panthers.
The reason why everyone loved the Texans drafting Fuller is because his ability to stretch the field is going to take attention away from Hopkins and the Houston running game. For fantasy purposes, Fuller might end up helping Hopkins and running back Lamar Miller’s value rather than his own.
Hopkins proved to be completely system-proof last season. Houston came into the year without its other top wide receiver and quarterback from 2014, and the team’s starting running back missed most of the season with injury. It didn’t matter, as Hopkins caught 111 passes for 1,521 yards and 11 touchdowns. He received 192 targets, which was 98 more than anyone else on the team.
At 23 years old, Hopkins is just warming up. Even with other weapons on the Texans offense, Hopkins is going to be the clear-cut No. 1 guy, so Fuller’s ceiling isn’t going to be as high as it could be.
Houston’s new starting quarterback Brock Osweiler played well at times last season, but he is still largely unproven. Fantasy owners don’t know whether he is going to be a prolific enough passer to make two of his wide receivers worthy of starting in fantasy each week. Miller is another variable in this equation.
Without really knowing much about how all these pieces are going to come together, owners should err on the side of caution when it comes to Houston making its one-dimensional rookie receiver a focal point of the offense. He may have some really long catches, but they could also be few and far between.
Target Fuller as one of the better options in dynasty leagues, but in re-draft leagues, it’s hard to see Fuller as anything better than a WR5 in 12-team leagues.
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