In the 2016 NFL Draft, the New York Giants used their second-round pick on Sterling Shepard. Despite being the fifth wide receiver selected in this year’s draft, the former University of Oklahoma pass catcher is in a great position to be the top fantasy scoring rookie wide receiver in 2016. Shepard finished his senior year at Oklahoma with 86 receptions, 1,288 yards and 11 touchdowns on his way to earning second-team All-American honors. Equally impressive, he dropped just eight passes in his four years in college.
While Shepard does not possess elite speed, he still owns a very impressive 4.48-second 40-yard dash. In addition to the above-average straight-line speed, the wide out is also a strong, physical type of player. At the combine he recorded 20 reps on the bench press and a 41 inch vertical jump, both of which were among the top performers among the wide receiver position. His skill set combined with his 5’10” stature, the newest Giants wide out should make an excellent slot receiver in Ben McAdoo’s pass-happy offense.
Shepard could not have landed in a better spot than New York to maximize his fantasy football potential in 2016. With Victor Cruz having missed the last two seasons to injury and Rueben Randle walking away in free agency, the Giants’ offense is in dire need of playmakers at the wide receiver position as opposing defenses focus on slowing down Odell Beckham. It also helps Shepard’s chance that New York does not have a dynamic tight end, making for an opportunity for the slot receiver to own the middle of the field for the Giants’ offense.
Combine the question marks at the skill positions for the Giants with the fact that New York likes to throw the ball a lot, it is not unrealistic to expect Shepard to see 100 targets in the passing game during his rookie campaign. In 2015, the Giants’ dropped back to pass 623 times, sixth most in the league. And more interestingly 472 of those 623 pass attempts came when the Giants’ offense lined up in three-receiver sets, which plays well to Shepard’s expected role in his rookie season. It also is worth noting that 28 of the Giants’ 34 passing touchdowns came when Ben McAdoo dialed up a pass play that included three wide receivers.
Besides falling into a great offensive system, another factor working in the rookie’s favor is his upcoming opponents. Accord to Scout.com, the Giants’ wide receiver group owns the sixth easiest schedule in 2016 which just adds to the intrigue of targeting Eli Manning’s newest weapon in your fantasy drafts.
Shepard should have no problem at least replicating the now departed Randle’s 2016 season in which he finished with 797 yards and eight touchdowns. But unlike Randle, Shepard’s skill set provides a much higher ceiling especially in this pass-first offense. If the rookie was to hit his ceiling, he would compare favorably to the New England Patriots’ Julian Edelman as a matchup nightmare coming out of the slot position.
Given his skill set and the fit that the New York Giants’ offense provides the rookie wide receiver, Sterling Shepard should be targeted as a WR4 in your upcoming fantasy football drafts in 2016, realizing that his upside could easily outpace that original designation. Whether he outplays the early WR4 assignment or not, Shepard should still find himself as the top scoring fantasy first-year wide receiver this season.
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