Where the top college quarterbacks land in the NFL isn’t usually the biggest concern for fantasy owners in re-draft leagues. Only a handful of quarterbacks (five to be exact) have averaged more than 15 fantasy points per game during their rookie campaigns. The much bigger draw for owners is to search the NFL draft for the breakout rookie running back or wide receiver.
That isn’t the case in fantasy football dynasty leagues, and drafting a young quarterback to lead the fantasy team for the next decade might be as important as ever this summer.
After 18 very successful (well, maybe 17) fantasy seasons, Peyton Manning finally called it a career. Tom Brady will turn 39 before the start of the season and Drew Brees is 37. Other star fantasy quarterbacks — Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning — are all at least 34. Dynasty owners with these signal callers could all be in the market to draft a college quarterback for their team.
If given the choice of any quarterback, it’s important to get the right one.
Because he has the opportunity to start right away and was the No. 1 pick in the draft, Los Angeles Rams signal caller Jared Goff is the obvious choice, but is he the best long-term solution? Let’s compare Goff to Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz in terms of value.
Ironically, both play for teams that traded up in the draft to take them. Jeff Fisher and the Rams hope they finally found their solution for under center.
Goff has all the intangibles to be a franchise quarterback: good size, NFL arm, advanced pocket mobility, and field awareness. He completed 64.5 percent of his passes for 4,714 yards, averaging 8.9 yards per attempt, 43 touchdowns and 13 interceptions last fall in his junior season at California.
One of the hottest debates heading into the draft was whether Goff or Wentz would go first overall. According to NFL.com, that argument was more one-sided than the media made it sound.
“I wish somebody would start some rumor to get (Jared) Goff to fall in the draft,” one NFC executive told NFL.com. “Let’s get that small-hand talk going! We would take him tomorrow. He’s the best quarterback in this draft and it’s not as close as the media is making it sound.”
Unfortunately, talent doesn’t always translate in fantasy football. Goff is headed to a team that wants to win by playing sound defensive football. The Rams also have dynamite running back Todd Gurley, so what better way to help the defense than eat up a lot of clock with one of the best running backs in the league?
Should Fisher and his coaching staff remain in Los Angeles, Goff’s upside could be restricted, especially with Tavon Austin being his only true weapon in the passing game. Keep in mind: The Rams will have limited picks to add wide receivers atop the draft over the next few years.
Wentz’s future in Philadelphia is murkier because of the Sam Bradford situation, but his upside appears to be higher. At 6-foot-5, he reminds scouts of “Big Ben” or Blake Bortles and already has a strong grasp of how to read through progressions. Wentz doesn’t have as strong an arm as Goff, but he can make all the throws with accuracy and move the chains with his legs.
(Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)
In college, Wentz was a star. In his junior season, he threw for 3,111 yards, averaging 8.7 yards per attempt, and 25 touchdowns versus 10 picks. He missed two months with a broken wrist last year, but he came back to post 1,651 passing yards, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions in seven games.
The biggest questions surrounding Wentz are how will be respond to much stiffer competition. Going to North Dakota State, he didn’t play D-I college football, so jumping to the NFL is a big step. He is also going from “small town USA” to one of the toughest fan bases in one of the biggest cities in the country.
It’s going to take time to adjust, and like Los Angeles, Philadelphia will have a difficult time surrounding Wentz with talent because of all the picks the franchise gave up to get him. However, there are already some nice pieces in place for him to succeed.
Eagles coach Doug Pederson was Kansas City’s offensive coordinator from 2013 to 2015. He did a fine job of continuing to develop Alex Smith. Pederson has a better track record than any offensive coach the Rams have.
Receivers Jordan Matthews, Nelson Agholor and tight end Zach Ertz are decent pass-catching options. At running back, Philadelphia has Ryan Mathews, who should help Wentz improve, but he isn’t going to hog all the yards and scores as Gurley will in Los Angeles.
Of course, there’s no guarantee these guys will be the same (or still with the Eagles) once Wentz is ready to be the starter. He’s a project, and because Bradford is signed to a two-year deal, owners will have to sit and wait for Wentz to get his turn.
Owners probably can’t go wrong with either guy, but long term, it’s hard not to go with Wentz. His upside is greater because of the Eagles’ offense and coaching staff. Goff is the safer pick because of his superior talent and the chance to start right away.
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