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Every year, fantasy owners hear all kinds of chatter about which players to avoid. Maybe it’s just a personal choice of words, but I never advise someone to “completely avoid” one particular player. At the right price and in a deep enough league, anyone could be worth a roster spot.
However, warning signs exist for Chicago Bear running back Jeremy Langford. While the “don’t completely avoid” rule stands, you might want to steer clear of him in early-stage fantasy drafts.
The 24-year-old had a decent rookie season, rushing for 537 yards and six touchdowns despite starting just two games. That was apparently good enough for Chicago to wave goodbye to longtime star Matt Forte, and that confidence has boosted Langford in the minds of many owners. He has an extremely early overall ADP of 43, according to Fantasy Pros.
That’s pretty early for a guy who averaged just 3.6 yards per carry, the fourth-lowest average among qualified running backs. The only three backs with fewer yards per rush in 2015 were Jeremy Hill, Melvin Gordon and Matt Jones.
Remember how frustrating all three of those guys were despite receiving a chance to start at one point or another during the season? If Langford’s yards per attempt doesn’t improve, owners could face a similar type of year from him.
It would be easy to blame the Chicago offensive line for Langford’s inefficient rushing totals last year, but that wouldn’t be fair. Pro Football Focus ranked the Bears’ line 16th overall, but the fifth-best run-blocking unit. Forte averaged 4.1 yards per attempt. As a team, Chicago gained 3.9 yards per rush.
It’s not as though Langford routinely got stuffed for no gain or pushed back for a loss and then busted loose for a long run. He is one of just four backs with at least 100 carries last year who registered only one run longer than 20 yards. Interestingly, Hill was one of the other three. Langford also had only two runs go for at least 15 yards while Forte, with the same offensive line, had six.
The biggest reason Langford probably has trouble running for big gains is because he is horrible at breaking tackles. According to Pro Football Focus, he broke only seven tackles all of last year, and no other back with at least 88 attempts had fewer. Langford averaged just 1.8 yards after contact per attempt.
Chicago’s new starting running back was able to make up for his inefficient running game with some big plays in the passing game. Of his 22 catches, five went for over 15 yards and three were longer than 20. The biggest was an 83-yard touchdown against the Rams. All of that helped him average 12.7 yards per catch.
However, some glaring negatives still emerged in his receiving game. Langford dropped seven passes, which was tied for the most among all running backs in the league, on just 42 targets according to Sporting Charts. Devonta Freeman was the only other back with seven drops, but he had more than twice as many targets (97).
Let’s assume Langford improves a little bit and averages 3.9 yards per attempt. Even at that average, he’s going to gain only 975 rushing yards in a season with 250 carries. Langford should be a big part of the Bears’ passing attack again, but his unreliable hands could turn him into a boom-or-bust fantasy pass-catcher.
At those realistic projections, owners should think twice about making Langford a top-50 choice in fantasy drafts this fall. Later in the draft, he could provide some value off the bench, but the second-year back shouldn’t be anywhere close to the top of owners’ running-back depth charts in 2016.
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