Demaryius Thomas of the Denver Broncos is getting no respect in fantasy circles as drafts for the 2016 season begin. Denver’s top receiver is being chosen 15th in current drafts according to Scout.com. This low of an average draft position (ADP) for Thomas is a criminal undervaluation of the pass catcher’s ability.
In his last four NFL seasons, Thomas has averaged 101 receptions, 1,447 yards and 10 touchdowns per season. How could a wide receiver that’s not yet reached the dreaded age of 30, coming off a 1,304-yard season, not get drafted as a top-10 pass catcher?
The answer for those fantasy players passing on him in their drafts is simple: Mark Sanchez is the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in 2016. The quarterback who has fallen short of the hype that followed him from the University of Southern California will replace first-ballot Hall of Famer Peyton Manning and still unproven Brock Osweiler in Denver.
Is the demise of Demaryius Thomas’s fantasy value as simple as that?
Based on their 2015 statistics as starters in the NFL, which quarterback would you want throwing to your fantasy wide receivers?
Player A: 66% completion rate, 6.8 yards per attempt, 2 TDs per game, 1.5 INTs per game
Player B: 60% completion rate, 6.8 yards per attempt, 1 TD per game, 1.9 INTs per game
Player C: 62% completion rate, 7.3 yards per attempt, 1.3 TDs per game, 1.4 INTs per game
If you choose Player A you would be correct — you would want Mark Sanchez and not the Manning/Osweiler combo.
One of the biggest mistakes a fantasy player can make in a draft is to chase a name rather than make decisions based on the previous season’s production and expected results for the next year. While at first thought everyone would naturally say that Peyton Manning is a better quarterback than Mark Sanchez, in 2015 that wasn’t the case. It wasn’t really that close, either: Sanchez dominated Manning in every major statistical category as a starter last season.
It is reasonable to expect that if Demaryius Thomas was able to produce 1,304 yards and be the 13th-best fantasy scoring wide receiver in a season with Peyton Manning’s arm holding on by a thread (and Osweiler, an unremarkable quarterback, playing part of the season), he will be able to at least match that production with Mark Sanchez.
With an overall current ADP of 26.46, Thomas provides a great opportunity for savvy fantasy players willing to ignore names and instead target production. Depending on what pick you have in traditional snake drafts, Thomas could be had in the late second round to the early stages of the third round, allowing a fantasy player to draft one of the top wide receivers in the first round and then grab Thomas as a more than capable WR2. This would create a very formidable wide receiving duo without having to reach on a player like Sammy Watkins, who currently has a higher ADP than Thomas.
Feel very comfortable targeting Thomas as a WR2 in your upcoming fantasy drafts, even with Mark Sanchez captaining the Broncos’ offense in 2016.
The post Current ADP for Demaryius Thomas is borderline criminal appeared first on Today's Pigskin.