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Few would dispute Jamaal Charles’ status as one of the NFL’s premier running backs. After all, Charles is the all-time leading rusher for the Kansas City Chiefs, a franchise that’s boasted runners like Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Christian Okoye and Marcus Allen. Unsurprisingly, that level of production has made Charles a coveted target for fantasy football players throughout the duration of his career.
Last season, per Fantasy Football Calculator’s (FFC) Average Draft Position (ADP) data, Charles was the fourth player off the board on average. He was certainly meeting owner expectation early on, averaging over 100 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown per contest. Unfortunately, Charles’ season, and the title hopes of many of his owners, was derailed when he sustained a torn ACL in Week 5.
The injury, naturally, raises the question of where fantasy players should target Charles in their drafts this year. On name-value and past production alone, he’d be a top-five lock. However, the fact that Charles turned 29 in December and, more importantly, is coming off an injury that has capsized the careers of so many backs has to lower his draft stock.
Early on, it has. In this year’s mock drafts, though it’s still quite early in the process, FFC has Charles with an ADP of 12th overall – at or near the end of most first rounds. However, that still seems a little high. While we’ve recently seen the likes of Adrian Peterson and Rob Gronkowski make marvelous comebacks from torn ACL’s, they’re still more the exception than the rule.
Of course, Charles has rebounded from a torn ACL of his own in the past – tearing his left one back in 2011. He came back strong, posting three consecutive 1,000-yard years heading into the ’15 season. It’s important to note, however, that Charles suffered the first injury during his age-24 season and, so, it was easier for his body to recover.
On two shaky legs, with three more years of a steady workload and nearing 30, that may not be the case again in ’16.
Beyond the injury itself is how the Chiefs might compensate for it. Charles has buttered Kansas City’s bread for years now, but that didn’t stop Andy Reid from reducing his workload even when healthy. He’s averaged a hair under 14 carries a game over his past two seasons and, given that Kansas City has two other proven backs in Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware on the roster, that number isn’t likely to rise.
In years past, the fact that Charles has been so productive even on relatively limited touches, had come back strong from previous injuries and the dearth of running back talent would be enough for him to maintain first-round status. But the tides are changing in the land of fantasy.
It used be that everybody would eye a running back in round 1, and oftentimes rounds 2 and 3 as well, of their fantasy drafts. With so few bell cow backs, having one gives fantasy owners a tremendous advantage. That strategy’s tried and true, but it also burned a lot of fantasy players last season.
Charles, Le’Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Marshawn Lynch, CJ Anderson, Jeremy Hill and DeMarco Murray were among the first or near-first round backs to disappoint last year. Meanwhile, the NFL’s top-10 rushers, sans Peterson, were a slew of mid-to-late round finds. Unsurprisingly, this has prompted many to shun high-priced running backs in favor of the more statistically dominant, and seemingly safer, wide receivers.
In FFC mocks done this offseason, six wide receivers and Gronkowski are typically off the board within the top 11 picks. What this means is that Charles will likely join a slew of backs who will be taken in the late-first or second round of fantasy drafts. A look at some of the names that should be available alongside Charles shows why some owners should have trepidation over making him their back of choice.
Devonta Freeman notched over 1,600 scrimmage yards and 14 scores last season in a stunning breakout and, though his end of the year wasn’t as strong as it’s beginning, he was a worthwhile fantasy play seemingly every week.
Lamar Miller had Dolphins fans clamoring for him to see more touches all season long. Though they never came, he showed the ability to produce absolutely monstrous totals if given the workload. With the Texans, who’ve proven to never be shy about feeding their backs, he should have the chance.
Others like Ezekiel Elliott and Eddie Lacy aren’t sure bets to out-produce a healthy Charles, but they’re names worth considering over him all the same. Elliott enters as a highly touted rookie running behind the league’s best offensive line. Lacy heads into a contract year looking to be in great shape and with something to prove.
Granted, Jamaal Charles is the sort of talent that could leave you kicking yourself for passing him by. But everything working against him makes him the sort of pick you might be kicking yourself for making as well. Near the end of the second round he’s a no-brainer. But if some of the aforementioned backs, all of who are younger and, sans Lacy, less uncertain, are available, it might be best to steer clear of Charles.
Or, if you must take him, at least nab his backup as well.
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