It used to be quite rare to see a rookie wide receiver make a huge impact in fantasy football leagues. That all changed in 2014 with the emergence of Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin, Sammy Watkins, Jarvis Landry and several other rookie receivers. All of them held significant value in standard leagues.
Unfortunately, the wide receivers from the 2015 draft class weren’t nearly as impactful. While a couple of them didn’t play, some of them such as Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Nelson Agholor held virtually no value at all despite remaining on the field. However, don’t write him off: His failure to break out in his rookie year like other recent young wideouts doesn’t mean he isn’t worth taking a look at this season.
Yes it’s true – Agholor was one of the worst wide receivers in the league last year. Actually Pro Football Focus ranked him the worst out of 120 receivers.
It isn’t hard to see why. He caught just 23 of his 44 targets for 283 yards and a touchdowns. Even in PPR leagues, Agholor averaged only a putrid 1.85 fantasy points per week.
However, everyone else knows about these struggles, so there may be an opportunity to buy low here. Agholor is ranked the 144th-best overall player according to Fantasy Pros, which is nothing to write home about, but he has an extremely early ADP of 223. The difference between his ranking and ADP is plus-79, which makes him an extreme value selection late in drafts.
As promising as that sounds, Agholor still has to make major strides in his game in order to become “fantasy relevant” in standard leagues. There are a couple reasons to believe he can do that in 2016.
First, Agholor has always been a slow learner. He played in 13 games during his freshman season at USC, but he caught only 18 passes for 341 yards and two touchdowns. The following year, he made 56 catches for 918 yards and six touchdowns. The next season, Agholor hauled in 104 passes for 1,313 yards and 12 scores.
Not everyone is going to be Beckham, Evans or Watkins right out of college. Some wide receivers take a bit longer to develop, so fantasy owners shouldn’t give up on them after one poor rookie season.
Second, things should be at least a little more settled for the Eagles’ offense this fall. Thrown into disorder by all of Chip Kelly’s moving parts, it just didn’t click last year. There isn’t a big-name free agent running back who will be a distraction this year, or a very arrogant head coach who only drafts Pac-12 players. Quarterback Sam Bradford, if he can put the offseason behind him, should be more comfortable in year two in Philadelphia. The chemistry between him and Agholor should be better.
The final reason to believe in the Eagles’ second-year receiver is the ability he displayed during his rookie season. Agholor collected three receptions of over 20 yards last year, including a 53-yard touchdown he grabbed against Buffalo. He also had a 43-yard catch over the middle against Washington.
Those plays were few and far between, but the potential is there. Fantasy Pros’ very early rankings have Agholor as the 55th-best fantasy wide receiver heading into 2016. That would make him a WR5 in a 12-team league.
Feel free to take a risk on him later in the draft. Agholor’s potential upside is too great to afford letting him go undrafted.
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