Duke Johnson a fantasy sleeper in 2016

After watching six wide receivers finish inside of the top eight in fantasy scoring in 2015, it appears that the necessary approach to your upcoming fantasy drafts is to enter them with the notion that you will need to target wide receivers early and often. Undoubtedly, there will be 6-8 wide receivers selected in the first round of traditional fantasy drafts this season. While this certainly is the right strategy given the pass-first nature of the NFL, it will require fantasy players to be diligent in finding value in the later rounds as they look to fill their running back positions later than they are used to.

One possible mid-round target to help fill the running position for fantasy football players is the Cleveland Browns’ Duke Johnson. According to Scout.com, the second-year ball carrier owns an 86.22 average draft position (ADP) in fantasy drafts already taking place and is the 26th overall running back being selected. His current ADP allows for some upside from his floor value, which should be equal to at least his production in 2015. Making him an excellent target in the mid-rounds after fantasy players chased wide receivers at the beginning of the draft.

In his rookie campaign, Johnson played in 16 games and started seven of them. In his first year in the league, the Cleveland running back rushed the ball 104 times for 379 yards but his biggest contribution to the Browns’ offense was in the passing game. Johnson finished with 61 receptions for 534 yards and two touchdowns. All totaled, he finished the 2015 season as the 24th-highest scoring fantasy running back.

While none of that screams fantasy football stud, his opportunity in 2016 should lead to him being a fantasy sleeper this year. Johnson put up those numbers having played in only half of his team’s snaps in 2015. The former Miami Hurricane runner played 562 offensive snaps for Cleveland last year, while the Browns’ entire backfield, including Johnson, took 1,195 snaps. With Hue Jackson at the helm it is reasonable to think that Johnson’s offensive snaps and therefore his fantasy production will increase in 2016. Not only does Hue Jackson see Johnson as an everyday running back, the Browns’ newest head coach loves to call pass plays that are designed to be thrown to the running back position. In fact in the previous two seasons, the Cincinnati Bengals’ offense, which Jackson guided as the offensive coordinator, threw over 20% of their passes to running backs. So expect Johnson to be on the field more in his sophomore season.

In addition to Jackson’s love of throwing to running backs, the Browns may have to target the running backs out of necessity. After releasing Brian Hartline and the unknown status of currently suspended Josh Gordon, the Browns are left with four rookie receivers at the top of the depth chart. So while rookies often are slow to develop their game at the NFL level, Johnson becomes an even more important piece to the offense. It is quite possible that if tight end Gary Barnidge doesn’t lead Cleveland in the receiving game, Johnson will.

With fantasy football being all about the wide receiver position in 2016, fantasy players are not going to want to target running backs in the first few rounds of their draft. So by passing on the top running back options to select pass catchers instead, fantasy players are going to have to address the ball carrier position later in the draft. This will require finding a running back whose fantasy arrow is pointing up, like Duke Johnson’s is. Feel confident in neglecting the running backs in the first few rounds of fantasy drafts and target the Browns’ Johnson in the sixth round. His current ADP and the opportunity that lays ahead of him makes him an appealing fantasy football sleeper for the 2016 season.

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