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Derek Carr’s been a tremendous asset for his fantasy owners this year. The third-year pro’s amassed 2,321 passing yards, 17 touchdowns and just three interceptions through eight games. That puts him on pace for Tom Brady-like numbers of 4,642 yards, 34 touchdowns and a cool six picks.
That production, along with the Raiders’ 6-2 record at the midway point, has entrenched Carr firmly in the MVP discussion. It’s also put him in the must-start tier among fantasy signal-callers. Not too shabby for a guy who was typically the 12th quarterback off the board, per FantasyPros.
This week, though, is one where Carr owners might want to explore alternatives. On Sunday night, the Raiders will host the Denver Broncos and their top-ranked pass defense. Through eight games, Denver’s allowed just 184 passing yards a game, six passing touchdowns and has picked off eight passes.
It’d be one thing if Denver saw the likes of Case Keenum, Blake Bortles and Ryan Fitzpatrick on this run, but the Broncos have mostly been matched up against formidable passers. Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton, Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers (twice) have all taken their shots at the defending champs.
Newton had a pedestrian passing day salvaged by a rushing score. Luck, Dalton and even Rivers (once) had single-digit fantasy points. Perhaps the quarterback who found the most success against Denver was Matt Ryan, who’s having an MVP-caliber season of his own. Ryan got out of Denver with a win, but his statistics (267 yards and a touchdown) were ordinary.
Carr, meanwhile, has posted impressive stats, but much of it has come against less-than-stellar competition. In fact, Oakland’s faced four defenses ranked 23rd or lower against the pass this year. As you’d expect, Carr’s had his way with each one.
Carr hasn’t necessarily struggled against more stout defenses this year, but he’s certainly been less valuable from a fantasy perspective. For instance, Carr was held to under 250 yards and a single passing score against both the Titans and the Chiefs this year. Both defenses are sturdy, but not on par with Denver’s.
Of course, Carr knows full well how stout Denver’s defense is. The Broncos have, after all, given him trouble throughout his young career. In four career starts against Denver, Carr has completed 86 of 151 pass attempts (57 percent) for 734 yards, six touchdowns and five interceptions.
Carr’s managed over 10 fantasy points in a game against Denver just once, and even that game wasn’t exactly fantasy gold. He completed 12 of his 29 pass attempts for 135 yards in that outing, but two touchdown passes salvaged his day. Even still, that was good for all of 12 points in standard scoring formats.
Carr has undeniably improved and so it’s hard to totally dismiss the notion that he could go off against Denver. He’s got momentum, home field advantage and the primetime spotlight on his side. But none of those factors have made much of a difference for all the top-tier passers Denver’s already shut down this year.
Obviously, it’s tough to sit Carr. He’s been rolling all year long and, given how well this offense is producing, probably won’t have a disaster of a day. That said, anything over 15 points would be a bit of a surprise. If you have a roster that you think could overcome an average output, then go ahead and roll the dice.
But don’t say we didn’t warn you.
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