It’s hard to remain a sleeper for very long in fantasy football because one of two things happen.
Either A) the player fulfills his status as a sleeper, becomes a stars and is thus no longer underrated or B) the player fails to live up to expectations as a sleeper and those owners don’t trust him again.
But somehow, some way, Philadelphia Eagles tight end Zach Ertz appears poised to be a sleeper once again.
Ertz emerged on the fantasy scene as a popular late-round pick before the 2014 season, which was Chip Kelly’s second year in Philadelphia. As a rookie in 2013, Ertz caught 36 passes for 469 yards and four touchdowns.
Coming off a NFC East Championship, the Eagles featured a high-flying offense with LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin and rookie Jordan Matthews. They were expected to be even better in 2014, and Ertz was supposed to fit perfectly into the scheme as a high volume over-the-middle receiver and red zone target.
Some even speculated that his 6-foot-5 frame would make him the next rags to riches story at tight end like Jimmy Graham was a few years prior. Graham’s rookie numbers, 31 catches, 356 yards and five touchdowns, actually weren’t as good as Ertz’s totals in year one. But in year two, Graham made a huge jump, catching 99 passes for 1,310 yards and 11 touchdowns. (Sidebar: I remember taking a flier on Graham in the 11th round in 2011, and one owner typing in the chat box, “Who’s he?” One of my favorite draft day memories).
Of course, owners know that Ertz didn’t become the next Graham in 2014. He did receive 42 additional targets in his second season compared to year one, but he recorded just 58 receptions for 702 yards and three touchdowns.
Maybe it was because of all the hype the Eagles had after the Sam Bradford trade and all the other offseason moves, but once again, Ertz was a popular sleeper pick last fall. Although his numbers improved to 75 catches and 853 yards, he still was no Jimmy Graham.
Is 2016 the year? Can Ertz finally become an elite TE?
If his play over the final four weeks last season is an indication, that the answer is yes. He really struggled for the first three months of the season, averaging a meager 4.2 fantasy points per game the first 13 weeks, but after that, he took off, posting 35 receptions for 450 yards and a touchdown in the last four games. Ertz also ended the season with two 100-yard games (he only had one prior 100-yard game in his career) and had a season-high 17 targets in Week 16 versus Washington.
Philadelphia changing head coaches and offensive systems is not ideal for Ertz’s fantasy value, but Doug Pederson has shown in his coaching days that he knows how to develop a young tight end.
As offensive coordinator of the Kansas City Chiefs from 2013-2015, he helped tight end Travis Kelce emerge as one of the best young pass-catching tight ends in the league. In Pederson’s offense, Kelce recorded back-to-back seasons with at least 850 yards and five touchdowns during 2014 and 2015.
Ertz eclipsed the 850-yard mark a year ago, so the biggest thing missing from his fantasy game are trips to the end zone. The Eagles tight end has actually seen his touchdowns numbers decline over the last three years, and he only scored twice last year.
Touchdowns are the hardest thing for fantasy owners to predict, but the possibility Ertz experiences similar success with Pederson gives the Eagles tight end enough upside to make him a late-round value pick up once again.
For the owners who can find room in their hearts to trust Ertz one more time, consider him a top 12 tight end with top five potential.
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