Michael Floyd has been a model of inconsistency throughout his first four years in the NFL. And unsurprisingly, it’s been mainly because of injury and iffy quarterback play. He’s only missed one game due to injury, but just last year, dislocated three fingers in training camp, which derailed the first half of his season.
Floyd showed flashes as a rookie, catching 45 balls for 562 yards, but didn’t get enough opportunity. In 2013, he lived up to his first-round status and went for 66 catches, 1,054 yards and five touchdowns. After that breakout, many expected Floyd to be the next elite receiver in the league.
However, he went backwards in 2014 (47 receptions, 841 yards, six touchdowns), partly due to Carson Palmer getting hurt, and partly due to him not beating receivers like John Brown for time.
It looked like 2015 was going to be a similar season after dislocating his fingers; he had just eight receptions through the first five weeks. But Floyd and Palmer finally figured things out halfway through the year as Floyd topped 100 yards five times in the final eight games of the regular season. From Weeks 6 to 10 (four games), he had five touchdowns.
Because of that play at the end of the season, Floyd is getting ranked a bit higher than one would expect from a fifth-year player, who finished as the No. 32 fantasy wide receiver in standard leagues last season. Floyd is in a contract year, but the Cardinals are expected to give him an extension before the season starts, which could take away some of that extra motivation needed to get a better contract.
But looking at the above numbers, should Floyd be taken as a WR2? As of mid April, he is ranked as the No. 25 WR in the FantasyPros consensus rankings. One expert from Yahoo! has Floyd ranked at No. 17, while another one at Football.com has Floyd as low as No. 39. That’s a big difference. So there are obviously disagreements about how Floyd should be valued ahead of the season.
I’m with the latter argument in this situation.
Floyd did have that touchdown run in the middle of the season, but he also finished with just one in the final six games of the year. Expecting him to produce more than his career-high six touchdowns seems like a bold move at this point.
His numbers from the playoffs were also a bit worrisome. Floyd finished with 15 targets and only six receptions for 63 yards in two games. He had two touchdowns against the Packers, but that’s still not something you can rely on from him.
Part of the reason some believe Floyd will have a career-best year is because Larry Fitzgerald will be 33 years old at the start of the season. That may be true, but Fitzgerald is also coming off one of the best seasons of his long career, highlighted by 109 receptions.
To go along with that, Fitzgerald was the more trusted option in the playoffs. He dominated the Packers with eight receptions on 12 targets for 176 yards and a touchdown. Of course, he had a 75-yard catch-and-run against blown coverage, yet still had way better numbers than Floyd.
But looking at those rankings, Floyd is getting rated slightly above Fitzgerald, who is at No. 29.
Another player that the Cardinals receivers have to fight with this year is David Johnson, who became a huge receiving threat in the playoffs and finished with 15 receptions in two games. Johnson saw limited time for much of the regular season and only finished with 36 receptions. Boost that number by 20 at the minimum and there are about 30 less targets for the Arizona wide receivers.
And with much of Floyd’s value being connected to Carson Palmer, that’s also something else to worry about. Palmer hasn’t made it through an entire season in consecutive years since 2009 and 2010 with the Bengals.
Looking at the other players getting ranked near Floyd and it’s a wonder who will actually take him as the No. 25 receiver. Jarvis Landry and Doug Baldwin are right above him, while Golden Tate and Allen Hurns are behind him.
Tate finished with almost exactly as what Floyd had last year, but now he’s going to be the No. 1 option for Matthew Stafford. Is it that much easier to trust Floyd over Tate? That seems hard to believe.
Floyd is a good receiver, but ranking him as a low-end WR2 is a bit too much given his history and circumstances. Fitzgerald owned the slot for the Cardinals last season and I’d be willing to spend my money on the older receiver rather than an inconsistent one on the outside.
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