A strange thing happened out in the pacific northwest during the 2015 season. Well, actually it really wasn’t all the unusual considering the recent trends of the NFL.
Regardless, it was still strange to see the Seattle Seahawks become a pass-first offense, but that’s exactly what happened at the end of last year. Not only did Russell Wilson attempt 31 more passes than he did the year before, he also posted a 5.0 percent higher completion percentage and averaged 0.6 more yards per attempt.
As a result, Wilson had his first 4,000-yard and 30-touchdown year.
With those kinds of numbers, one of the Seahawks receivers was bound to become useful to fantasy owners. It turned out to be 27-year-old Doug Baldwin.
But even as Wilson and Baldwin were improving their chemistry and posting truly remarkable numbers, it seemed like owners still didn’t want to believe it. Every week, one of the most popular questions on fantasy football talks shows was “could Baldwin really post elite numbers for another game”.
It’s time for all of us to stop doubting Baldwin simply because his name is … well, “Doug Baldwin.” Owners should make it a point to not undervalue the guy in 2016.
The biggest reason why it has been so hard to come to grips with the fact Baldwin is a legitimate fantasy threat in standard leagues is because he never showed he could previous to last season.
Over his first four NFL seasons, all with Seattle, Baldwin averaged 49 receptions, 689.25 yards and 3.75 touchdowns per season. Those aren’t horrible numbers by any means, but it doesn’t scream fantasy stud. Quite frankly, it doesn’t even say fantasy commodity. In his first four seasons, he was really fantasy relevant only in non-PPR leagues with three starting wide receivers or standard leagues with at least 16 teams. That’s about it.
And halfway through 2015, it looked much of the same for Baldwin. In the first eight games last season, he had 31 catches, 345 yards and two touchdowns. Assuming he continued that pace, he would have been right in the neighborhood of his career season averages.
But in November and December, the Seahawks offense just exploded, again, mostly due to Wilson’s improvements, and Baldwin went absolutely ballistic.
It started in Week 9 against Arizona, when he had seven catches for 134 yards and a touchdown. Then, two weeks later versus Pittsburgh, Baldwin recorded six receptions, 145 yards and three scores. The three touchdowns in one game matched what he did all of 2014 combined.
And yet he still wasn’t done. In a five-game span from Week 12 to Week 16, which includes the game against the Steelers, Baldwin recorded 29 catches, 484 yards and 11 touchdowns. He had 11 scores in the previously three seasons combined.
Knowing that Baldwin had never come close to any of these numbers before, it makes more sense that owners were hesitant to trust the Seahawks wideout during the fantasy playoffs. But he just kept on producing, particularly in the touchdown department.
In all, Baldwin set career-highs across the board with 78 catches, 1,069 yards and 14 touchdowns. His previous career-bests in each category were 66 receptions and 825 yards from 2014 and five touchdowns from 2013.
Now, it’s not realistic to expect another five-game stretch where he scores 11 touchdowns again, but Wilson and Baldwin are two players just beginning to enter their primes, which makes Baldwin a wide receiver worth targeting in all leagues.
The experts at Fantasy Pros rank him the 24th-best fantasy wide receiver heading into 2016. That doesn’t sound too impressive … until realizing this: the same experts ranked Randall Cobb 19th, Kelvin Benjamin 20th, Jeremy Maclin 21st, Eric Decker 22nd and Jarvis Landry 23rd. Those are some of the best fantasy wide receivers of the past two or three years.
Furthermore, Fantasy Pros ranks Baldwin ahead of other stellar fantasy standouts such as Emmanuel Sanders, Golden Tate and Larry Fitzgerald.
As always, owners don’t want to rank a player too high just because of one stellar half of a season. But to group Baldwin in with those other great fantasy receivers is not a stretch at all. More than anything, it just speaks to the great depth the NFL has at the receiver position in today’s game.
To conclude, where Baldwin lands on a fantasy roster will obviously depend on the draft strategy used. If owners emphasize receiver, he is best as a depth guy/bye week replacement. For other owners who concentrate on grabbing running backs and a quarterback early, Baldwin could be a very dependable WR2 or FLEX play.
The point being, unlike in some previous years, Baldwin is a guy every fantasy owner should want. Target him as a sixth-rounder in 10-team leagues.
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