Fantasy: Back to off-the-grid status, Julius Thomas should bounce back

Malik Jackson’s incredible contract agreement with the Jaguars won’t affect many fantasy leagues, although the ones it will are doing it better than the masses. The other former Bronco, who served as a Jaguars free agent prize, though, will factor into fantasy plans this summer. Projecting where Julius Thomas will end up next season is a somewhat enigmatic exercise.

Entering his age-28 season, Thomas did carve himself a definitive role in Jacksonville after signing a five-year, $46 million deal last March. In a Jaguars offense that became quite relevant to fantasy owners, Thomas served as an inconsistent auxiliary component.

However, a hand injury harpooned Thomas’ initial Jags season and looks to relegate the former Pro Bowler and elite fantasy TE1 into mid- to-late-round territory, where the fourth-year starter could provide value from a sheer talent standpoint.

How to categorize Thomas remains up for debate as well.

The 2013 version of Thomas, when he supplanted Joel Dreesen quickly in Denver and caught 65 passes for 788 yards and 12 TDs, looked destined to challenge for best non-Rob Gronkowski tight end. The previous two iterations have Thomas’ value pegged as a player who’s only relevant inside the 20. That’s not a bad place to reside, but it certainly caps his value.

Just after the “It’s so (expletive) easy” game against the Jets in Week 5 of 2014, Thomas was on pace to score almost 30 touchdowns in his fourth season. Combining his old hoops chops with a knack for winning matchups in the slot or outside for the Broncos, his career arc looked borderline historic from a touchdown-scoring standpoint. He’d found the end zone 21 times in 19 career starts to that point and was the ultimate chess piece in Peyton Manning’s intergalactic offense.

That game in New Jersey represented a line of demarcation of sorts for the mercurial tight end. Thomas scored eight TDs in the 20 games that followed. Once Manning began to age rapidly midway through 2014, Denver went to a ball control-oriented offense, and his nagging ankle trouble reduced him to a decoy.

The encouraging thing about Thomas’ first Jacksonville slate came in the ankle maladies that forced him to be inactive for 30 games with the Broncos did not re-emerge in 2015. He started 11 games and began to make an impact by midseason, scoring in four straight contests.

Most pegged Thomas’ quick exit from Denver as a money grab, and it most certainly was, but he’s now in a better passing offense than what the Broncos possess. Suddenly, the Blake Bortles-led Jaguars are a legit aerial show. And we still don’t know where he falls into this operation since his late debut in the offense wasn’t the smoothest entrance.

Thomas actually caught more passes (46) last season for nearly as many yards (455) as in 2014 (489) despite missing four games, but his yards-per-catch figure plummeted to 9.9 after he posted 12.2- and 11.4-per-reception averages in 2013 and ’14, respectively. The Bortles offense looks superior to what the Broncos became but is in no way comparable to the attack that launched him into the worldwide fantasy consciousness.

Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns combined for a staggering 24 TDs and 2,431 yards. Odds are, that tandem isn’t going to surpass that figure if Thomas is in line to play a full season. Defenses will be forced to shade coverage toward Robinson and treat Thomas like the supporting actor he became in the Jags’ offense. Should that pattern form, Thomas will be seeing a lot of single-teams, and few defenders can handle him in the red zone.

Inevitable regression will limit Robinson’s touchdown totals in all likelihood, with Bortles being forced to look toward his talented second- and third-tier options. If he stays healthy, a big if, Thomas should be able to approach the marks of 2013 in one of the better aerial offenses in the game. Because instead of Thomas being the obvious focal point for defenses near the goal line as his Denver tenure concluded, opposing coordinators will have to stop Robinson and Hurns first.

You’ll be able to consider Thomas later than you did in each of the past two summers. He’s not going to be a Gronk- or Greg Olsen-type player that makes plays all over the field, but in terms of ball skills, few can match him near the end zone.

The performer once known as Orange Julius will be an overlooked threat. Residing in a balanced passing attack with an ascending quarterback, Thomas is in a position to trend toward his Manning years.

We’re probably not seeing that again, but a better performance than what we saw last season looks to be in the cards.

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