Free agents have been flying all over the place the last few days and the Texans have made plenty of headlines, mainly for their offensive signings. Houston will bring in Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller for 2016, in hopes that its offense can reach the same levels its defense did a year ago.
The Texans run game was mostly miserable last year, averaging a putrid 3.7 yards per carry, which was good for 28th in the league. And because of their quarterback issues, they were forced to run it the fifth-highest amount with 472 total carries. Without consistent quarterback play, Alfred Blue was left to carry the ball 183 times, which may be the last time he sees that amount in his career. Chris Polk and Jonathan Grimes were also used, but Blue was No. 1 on the depth chart after Arian Foster went down.
Maybe the one thing that should have the Texans and Lamar Miller fantasy owners worried ahead of next season is that when Foster played last year, his numbers weren’t the best. While Foster wasn’t often 100%, in four games he finished with just 63 carries for 163 yards (2.6 yards per carry) and a touchdown. Most of his yards and fantasy points came through the air with 22 receptions, 227 yards and two touchdowns.
The question for Miller will be if he can be that same kind of receiving back for the Texans. Without Foster last year, Grimes was the main guy to see third-down duty, but he only had 26 catches for 173 yards, less than what Foster did in four games.
Miller has improved in the receiving game since he came into the league, but his usage at Miami will always be a question. He was the Dolphins’ starting running back from start to finish last year, yet Miami only gave him 194 carries. He did have the best receiving numbers of his career with 47 receptions, so that’s a positive sign. But why did he fail to surpass 12 receiving yards in six of the final seven games last year? The shorter, bulkier Damien Williams came in late in the season and became more of a receiving back than Miller. Did the Dolphins really want to rest Miller or did they think Williams was better out of the backfield? Then again, they could’ve been priming Williams for this season because they knew they wouldn’t re-sign Miller.
Nevertheless, those are hypotheticals. What we know is that Miller will still only be 25 years old when this season rolls around and he’s had little wear on his tires because the Dolphins didn’t use him as a workhorse back.
The Texans lost a couple of offensive linemen in free agency, but also already replaced them with guard Brandon Brooks and center Ben Jones. There may be some cohesion issues early on, but the line should form a solid group.
And then there’s Brock Osweiler. As long as he can be better than what the Texans had last year, expect more holes in the ground game to open up. With DeAndre Hopkins on his side, the pieces are already there for some success.
With Houston’s current backfield, Miller should easily jump into feature back status and push 300 touches on the year. Whether he can handle a load like that remains to be seen, but the Texans gave him four years and $26 million hoping he can.
Where he falls in drafts is another question. At the moment, it looks like he’ll fall around the 10-spot for running backs, at least according to a few different rankings at FantasyPros. That’ll surely move around before now and August, but considering Miller is expected to be the lead guy in Houston, ranking him outside of the Top 15 RBs would be surprising.
Miller will be in the same range as LeSean McCoy, Mark Ingram, Eddie Lacy and Jeremy Langford. Behind those guys, it falls off a bit and that’s a good place for Miller to fit. Most of those running backs will be the lead RB in their respective backfields and have shown they can produce in the NFL.
Miller has shown he can be good on a smaller dosage, but give him more touches and what hill happen to him? Can he make it an entire season or will he pickup a nagging injury and miss the fantasy playoffs? These are questions we’ll have to address closer to draft time, but for now, expect Miller to have a career year in Houston.
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