Even heading into last season, DeMarco Murray was going lower in fantasy drafts than his previous year’s production would indicate. The 2014 season’s leading rusher was wonderfully productive for fantasy owners that year, but was still just the eighth running back off the board on average (per Fantasy Football Calculator). This, of course, was due both to a murky injury history and his departure from the Dallas Cowboys and their magnificent offensive line.
As it turned out, those hesitant to put their faith in Murray were wise to be skeptical. Murray totaled 1,237 fewer yards from scrimmage in 2015 than in 2014. He managed just 702 rushing yards in his only season with the Eagles and was, at times, so ineffective that Philadelphia sat him in favor of Ryan Mathews. Unsurprisingly, Murray’s poor season prompted the Eagles to ship him to another team, the Tennessee Titans, for a swap of fourth-round picks.
With another change in scenery, many are questioning where to target Murray in their upcoming fantasy drafts. As we saw with Doug Martin in 2015, it’s not impossible for a stud-turned-disappointment to regain stud-level form. In early mock drafts, it appears most expect Murray to tread the line between his 2014 and 2015 seasons — he’s off the board in the fourth round, the 17th back selected on average. Is that the right spot for him?
Of course, in determining Murray’s value it’s important to consider his situation. On a Tennessee team with a young, mobile quarterback in Marcus Mariota and three first-round offensive linemen (Jack Conklin, Taylor Lewan and Chance Warmack), it stands to reason that the Titans will try to run the ball often in 2016.
Tennessee wanted to make the run game a focal point last season, but simply didn’t have the horses it needed in the backfield. The Titans tried out several different backs – Antonio Andrews, Dexter McCluster, Bishop Sankey, David Cobb and even Terrance West – but none emerged as a true featured back.
The team went to work rectifying its backfield woes this offseason. Trading for Murray in hopes that he’d recapture the form that won him an Offensive Player of the Year award was the first step. Adding the draft’s consensus second running back in Derrick Henry was the second step. When it comes to drafting Murray, the presence of Henry might scare some off.
The Henry selection, however, seems more a case of the Titans taking out an insurance policy on their investment in Murray… for now. Henry might be Tennessee’s featured back of the future, but the Titans wouldn’t agree to honor Murray’s hefty contract if they didn’t plan on making him the leader in their backfield. Given Murray’s injury history, it might be wise to handcuff Henry to him, but it’s not likely Henry will receive 10 or more touches in games when Murray’s active.
The Titans have enough in the passing game with Delanie Walker, Rishard Matthews and Dorial Green-Beckham to keep defenses honest, but they’ll make their money on the ground. Mariota’s presence as a runner should afford Murray more room to operate than he received with the Eagles.
The league’s most proficient running quarterbacks, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson, have running backs — whether it’s Marshawn Lynch, Thomas Rawls or Jonathan Stewart — who have all been effective fantasy backs.
For those reasons, Murray is a strong target as a second running back. 1,800 yards might not be in the cards, but presuming he plays in most games, a return to 1,000-plus form seems well within reach. It’s hard to argue for Murray over any of the backs in front of him in Fantasy Football Calculator mocks. Similarly, only the two immediately below him (C.J. Anderson and Carlos Hyde) merit debate. This time around, it seems that FFC drafters got it right on the money by drafting Murray as a late-third/early-fourth round prospect.
The post Where to target DeMarco Murray in fantasy drafts appeared first on Today's Pigskin.