The biggest mistake inexperienced fantasy owners make is drafting solely based on the name of the player. This strategy burns owners every single year.
It will happen again if owners draft Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan too early. The 31-year-old signal caller should be coming into his prime, but instead, he had a below-average fantasy season last year, as he continues to throw too many interceptions.
The experts at Fantasy Pros have caught on to those mistakes, as he is ranked just the 18th-best quarterback on their extremely early list. It’s not hard to see why. Below is a chart of the quarterbacks rated 10-18 on Fantasy Pros’ ranking list.
| Quarterback | ADP | Yards | TD | INT | AVG FTSY PTS |
| 10. Eli Manning | 100.0 | 4,436 | 35 | 14 | 17.97 |
| 11. Tony Romo | 88.0 | 884 | 5 | 7 | 10.18 |
| 12. Philip Rivers | 108.0 | 4,792 | 29 | 13 | 17.78 |
| 13. Derek Carr | 107.0 | 3,987 | 32 | 13 | 16.95 |
| 14. Andy Dalton | 117.0 | 3,250 | 25 | 7 | 18.78 |
| 15. Tyrod Taylor | 138.0 | 3,035 | 20 | 6 | 19.32 |
| 16. Marcus Mariota | 152.0 | 2,818 | 19 | 10 | 17.5 |
| 17. Kirk Cousins | 145.0 | 4,166 | 29 | 11 | 18.34 |
| 18. Matt Ryan | 164.0 | 4,591 | 21 | 16 | 14.62 |
As one can see, besides Romo, who played just four games and didn’t finish two of them, Ryan is the only signal caller who averaged under 15.0 fantasy points per week. Again excluding Romo, Taylor is the lone quarterback who didn’t complete more touchdowns, and no one had more interceptions than Ryan.
That touchdown-to-interception ratio absolutely killed Ryan’s fantasy value a year ago. In addition to the 16 picks, Ryan also fumbled 12 times; that was second-most among quarterbacks. He lost five of them, which was tied for the most. So that means his touchdown-to-turnover ratio was an even 1-to-1.
Take a look at this smaller chart without the quarterback names revealed. Which one should be a fantasy owner’s last choice?
| Quarterback | Yards | TD | Turnovers |
| Quarterback A | 4,262 | 32 | 15 |
| Quarterback B | 4,591 | 21 | 21 |
| Quarterback C | 4,208 | 24 | 15 |
Quarterback B is the third-best option on this chart, and as one can probably guess, that’s Ryan. Surprisingly, Quarterback A and C are Matt Stafford and Ryan Tannehill, respectively, and neither one of those guys are ranked in Fantasy Pros’ top 20 quarterbacks. But based on these numbers, they have an argument to be drafted before Ryan.
Granted, there’s still a lot to like about the Falcons quarterback. He’s finished among the top five quarterbacks in passing yards in each of the last four years. Last year was also the first time since his rookie year in 2008 that Ryan played every game and didn’t throw for at least 26 touchdowns.
For argument sake, let’s say Ryan rebounds and throws for at least 26 touchdowns this season. He has the yards, so with more scores, he should be back in the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks.
Well, not necessarily because as consistent as Ryan has been at throwing touchdowns prior to last year, he’s been just as steady at turning the ball over. Since 2012, he’s had between 14-17 interceptions every single year. In 2015, the turnovers even came in the red zone, as he threw four interceptions inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. That was one shy of the league lead.
So even if he rebounds with 27 touchdowns and 4,600 passing yards, assuming he throws at least 14 interceptions again, Ryan is still going to average under 17.0 fantasy points per week. Unless he cuts down on the interceptions or throws for even more yards (which is an unrealistic expectations) it would take a season of 33 touchdown passes for Ryan to average 18.0 fantasy points per game and enter back into the discussion of elite fantasy quarterbacks.
At such a low ADP, it will certainly be tempting to draft Ryan, but owners should avoid falling into the trap of selecting the Falcons quarterback based on merit. Even at late as the 14th round, there are better quarterback options than Ryan.
The post Don’t be fooled by Matt Ryan’s name appeared first on Today's Pigskin.