Fantasy owners were hopeful that Lamar Miller would be a breakout star heading into 2015. The recently turned 25-year-old was coming off an 1,100-yard year and, with little in the way of competition, an equal or better follow-up season seemed within reach. The fact that Miller was typically a second-round pick in ’15 drafts (per Fantasy Football Calculator (FFC)) is a testament to the faith owners had in the former Miami Dolphin.
Unfortunately, those expectations went, largely, unmet. How much of that falls on Miller, though, is tough to say. His final totals of 1,269 scrimmage yards and 10 scores are solid in a bubble, but they no doubt could’ve been much better. Unfortunately, we’ll never know because of Miller’s restricted workload.
The running back received 10 or fewer carries in seven games last season. In just four games did he receive more than 15. Two of those came early in the year and Miller ran for well over 100 yards in both, but that mysteriously still didn’t lead to a greater or more consistent workload in the following weeks. Approaching 1,300 yards from scrimmage with double-digit scores on a relatively limited workload is mighty impressive. Still, with that in mind, it’s no surprise that Miller sought a change in scenery during this year’s free agency period.
On the Houston Texans, it seems safe to surmise that Miller will get the opportunity to meet his high potential. Houston’s been a run-oriented team under Bill O’Brien and seems to think it’s found it’s new horse in the backfield in Miller. The question is whether or not Miller will meet, exceed or fall short of the expectations that currently have him slotted as an early second-rounder (per FFC), and the eighth running back off the board, in fantasy drafts?
Frankly, all signs point to yes. The only argument that can be made about Miller’s draft positioning is that it’s perhaps a hair too low. As noted, the Texans were among the most run-heavy teams in the NFL last season, ranking fifth in rushing attempts. The production didn’t match, as Houston was a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of rushing output. That can be attributed more to a circus of sub-par quarterbacking and a backfield that, after Arian Foster went down, was headed by Alfred Blue.
The team upgraded the quarterback position this offseason with the signing of Brock Osweiler, but still, don’t expect that to make it a pass-first group. After all, Osweiler’s success in his first extended starting stint in ’15 was predicated on a balanced offensive attack and a ferocious defense. The Texans already have the defense in place and, with Miller, they think they’ve got the back to spearhead the offense.
Miller has some similarities to Foster that should make him a seamless fit for the Texans’ offense. For one, he, like Foster, is an adept receiver. Miller has 85 catches over the past two seasons and, in an offense with few proven receiving threats outside of DeAndre Hopkins, that’ll make him doubly effective. The two also both weigh in at around 225 pounds, though, at his peak, it was the 6’1 Foster who ran like the bigger of the two.
Yes, perhaps the biggest knock on Miller is that he isn’t a physical enough runner. That narrative is noted in this story from the Sun Sentinel’s Chris Perkins heading into last season and it’s one that Perkins has evidence to disprove – noting that Miller was largely successful on his short-yardage and goal-to-go attempts. But even if his ability between the tackles is better than he’s given credit for, Miller shines as a home run hitter. Miller’s got 16 runs of 20-plus yards over the last two years and set a Dolphins record with a 97-yard scoring jaunt in ’14.
Given Miller’s promise, the improved situation he finds himself in and the scarcity of featured running backs, it’s fair to call his regular draft slot of eighth among running backs a fair placement. Now, nobody would call the top four or so backs ahead of him into question, but the latter few come with room for debate. Can David Johnson build off an electric rookie year, can Ezekiel Elliott round into pro form quickly and can Devonta Freeman play more like he did when he set the world afire than he did near season’s end? All these questions are worth considering as you ponder who might be your team’s top back.
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