Delanie Walker mysteriously undervalued in 2016 fantasy drafts

It is not often that we see a football player get overlooked in fantasy drafts the year after he leads his position in receptions, finishes third in receiving yards and seventh in touchdowns. But that is exactly what we are seeing with the Tennessee Titans’ Delanie Walker in early 2016 fantasy football drafts. The tight end finished last season with 94 catches, 1,088 yards and six touchdowns on his way to being the fifth-highest fantasy scorer at his position in 2015.

Yet in fantasy drafts that have already taken place for this upcoming NFL season, Walker is getting overlooked in a big way.

According to Scout.com, Walker owns a 98.44 average draft position (ADP) and is the ninth tight end being selected in fantasy drafts.

In these early drafts, tight ends are being selected in the following order:

1. Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots
2. Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins
3. Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals
4. Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
5. Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers
6. Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
7. Ladarius Green, Pittsburgh Steelers
8. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
9. Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans
10. Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions

While there is not much of an argument to be made against the first five tight ends being selected ahead of last year’s top-five fantasy scoring tight end, there is plenty of confusion on how the likes of Ertz, Green and Seferian-Jenkins are being targeted in fantasy drafts before Walker.

Sure the weapons in the Titans’ passing game should be improved this season. They added free agent wide receiver Rishard Matthews and will be getting Kendall Wright back to full health. The Titans also will look for a Dorial Green-Beckham to make a big jump in his sophomore season.

The offense also looks set to have a renewed commitment to running the ball with the additions of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry in the offseason.

But all of this off-season activity by the Titans’ front office should not be enough to bump Walker down from the fifth-most scoring tight end to the ninth-best in 2016. As Marcus Mariota’s top possession option in the passing game, he will remain too important to the Titans’ offense and warrants your fantasy attention.

This precarious situation that includes Walker being undervalued in fantasy circles allows for smart fantasy players to take advantage of the fall from grace that Walker is currently taking and in return get excellent return on the investment at his current ADP.  

While Walker’s fantasy value is being threatened by the new offensive weapons, the trio of Ertz, Green and Seferian-Jenkins are all getting bumps in value not based on past production but instead on hope of what their current situation may entail.

So for comparison’s sake let’s take a look at what happens if we expect a 10 percent increase in Ertz, Green and Seferian-Jenkins’ production from 2015, while decreasing Walker’s fantasy total last season by that same amount because of the Titans’ new weapons. Under this model, Walker would still finish as the top-scoring fantasy option among the four players with 128.7 fantasy points. Ertz would come in second with 97.9 fantasy points, Green would have 71.5 and Seferian- Jenkins would finish the 2016 season with 60.5 points. In fact, in order for Green and Seferian-Jenkins to score more fantasy points than Walker in 2016, they would need to double their output while Walker’s gets cut in half.

So despite Walker’s expected decline in production because of the new faces in the Titans’ huddle, let others reach for the Green or Seferian-Jenkins types, while you wait another round in your draft before stealing Walker at his current ADP and coming out on top. Don’t over think this like others apparently are and take the proven body of work that Walker has provided in a Titans’ uniform.

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