Remember when some Pittsburgh fans criticized the Steelers for drafting Le’Veon Bell over Eddie Lacy? The latter won the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award on his way to a Pro Bowl bid in 2013, while Bell began his career on the sideline with an injury.
My how things have changed. Bell went on to become a consensus top-three fantasy pick last year even though he was suspended the first two games. Despite coming off a major knee injury, Bell is still the top-ranked fantasy running back going into 2016, while Lacy is ranked 10th at the position according to Fantasy Pros.
Lacy has an extremely early fantasy ADP of 21. Even with an obvious drop in average draft position, that might still be a little too early because there is still a lot of risk involved with drafting him.
The 26-year-old back is coming off by far the worst season of his career, rushing for just 758 yards and three touchdowns. He actually averaged the same yards per carry last year as he did in his rookie season, but he had 97 fewer carries because Lacy wasn’t able to start every game.
He came into 2015 overweight and paid the price for it. Lacy appeared to lack quickness and stamina early in the year. After Week 1, he recorded more than 18 carries in a game just once. Through the first half of the season, he had 308 rushing yards and failed to eclipse the 100-yard mark even one time.
Then, Lacy appeared to come out of the slump in late November. He rushed for 100 yards on Nov. 22 and 105 yards four days later on Thanksgiving, but the following Thursday, he missed curfew, so the Packers sat him on the bench again. Against the Lions, he had one of his worst games of his career, gaining four yards on five carries and making one catch for negative-3 yards.
To his credit, he bounced back with a season-high 124 yards the following week, but then he had only 117 rushing yards in the next three games combined.
Packers coach Mike McCarthy was blunt about Lacy and his weight in his season-ending press conference. Lacy would have to be in better shape in order to be a 1,000-yard rusher again. He reported to OTAs in the 240-pound range and looked good during his workouts, but Green Bay is still slightly concerned with what Lacy will do the rest of the summer. He has five weeks until the Packers open training camp.
What Lacy does in those five weeks will greatly effect where fantasy owners will draft him. If he comes into camp in great shape, grabbing Lacy in the third round could prove to be a bargain. Remember, this is a guy who through two seasons had 24 total touchdowns and averaged 74.7 rushing yards per game. Throw in his receptions and receiving yardage, and Lacy averaged 16.8 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues from 2013-2014.
Should he fall back into old habits and gain weight between now and camp, drafting Lacy will be too risky. In PPR leagues last season, he scored just 9.64 fantasy points per week.
With that kind of drop-off last year, there will certainly be some anger from owners who will stay away from Lacy at all costs, which could give owners an opportunity to draft him late. However, if the 21st pick is as far as he drops, unless he comes into camp in tip-top shape, it’s probably too early to risk it.
It’s still early, but LeSean McCoy, C.J. Anderson and Thomas Rawls are all preferred over the Packers’ running back, yet could be available after Lacy gets drafted.
Stay tuned.
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