Every year, tight end is one of the more interesting positions in the realm of fantasy football. Getting one of the elite few (see: Gronkowski, Rob) gives their fantasy owners a huge advantage at one position almost every week. The thing is, there are so few elite statistical tight ends that drafting one comes with the danger of a team being weaker at another position.
This year’s highest-drafted fantasy tight ends are, per Fantasy Football Calculator, Gronkowski, Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen and Cincinnati’s Tyler Eifert. Eifert’s the only one of the four without at least a 900-yard season on his resume. On the other hand, his 13 touchdowns in 2015 represent the second-most in that quartet’s combined 21 seasons.
Those contrasting facts, along with a few other factors, make Eifert among the most curious players from a fantasy standpoint heading into 2016. As noted, the Bengals’ tight end is currently fourth off the board at his position — a spot that has him going in the middle of the fifth round on average. The question isn’t just if Eifert’s a top-five fantasy tight end, but also if he’s worth a mid-fifth-round pick in relation to his peers at other positions?
To start, there’s the touchdown production. Eifert’s 13 touchdown receptions in ’15 were tied four fourth-most league in the league and made him one of just five players to score in the teens. Of course, the fact that Eifert had been a relative non-factor through his first two seasons, with one being lost due to injury, and his difficult-to-maintain pace of a touchdown every four receptions will cause some to question whether Eifert can continue to score at such a rate in ’16.
Still, the Bengals were willing to make Eifert a first-round pick out of Notre Dame back in 2013 because they recognized he had the talents to be one of the league’s most dominating pass-catching tight ends. As the display he put on in his breakout year, and the chemistry he developed with Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton, can attest, Eifert has the makings of a regular double-digit touchdown guy.
So long as he stays healthy, that is. But we’ll touch on that in a bit.
For now, let’s get back to the yardage issue. Eifert managed 615 yards last season, a fine total by the standards of most starting tight ends, but not a number befitting the league’s elite. His 47 yards-per-game average is fine when paired with a score or two, but to be a difference-maker he either needs to keep scoring at such a phenomenal pace or pick it up in the yardage department.
Touchdowns are a fickle beast in the NFL for even the league’s best at producing them and so it stands to reason that Eifert might not score at the same rate he did in ’15. Fortunately for him, the Bengals lost their second and third wide receivers in the offseason and so they’ll need Eifert to become an even bigger part of their passing game. With a bigger chunk of targets, an 800-yard, 10-score season seems within reach for Eifert.
It is worth mentioning, though, that Eifert was actually on pace for an 820-yard year last season. Unfortunately, he missed four games to injury and so his numbers were capped. An optimist might say that means Eifert was in line for an even bigger season, but a pessimist would find it tough to disregard the injuries Eifert’s dealt with all throughout his short career.
He missed almost all of his second pro season, when many were anticipating his breakout, due to a shoulder injury. Then, last season, he missed games spread all throughout the season due to an elbow injury, a stinger and a concussion. Last came the kicker when, in this year’s Pro Bowl, Eifert was forced out of what most see as a “glorified scrimmage” after sustaining an ankle injury.
To make matters worse, it came out late last month that Eifert will need ankle surgery for the lingering injury, a procedure with a three-month recovery time. That could put his status for the season opener, or perhaps even longer, in jeopardy.
Were it just one isolated incident, it’d be much easier to discount any of Eifert’s injuries. But the fact that he missed or was pulled from four separate games to injury, just a year removed from missing a whole season, is a different matter entirely.
In terms of physical talents, Eifert’s no doubt a top-five tight end. However, his injury history makes him a boom-or-bust prospect. Given the position he plays and the draft capital required for him, that bust possibility makes him hard to invest in. Instead, it seems like the first few tight ends going right after him — Travis Kelce (872 yards, five touchdowns in ’15) and Delanie Walker (1,088 yards, six touchdowns) — offer less upside, but high statistical floors and much better odds of playing a 16-game season.
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